Corona Virus

[E_T]

One of the reasons I'm still living in Florida, when opportunities for work that I would be qualified for, would be in States that allow Unions.  Florida is a Right to work state with no Unions, mostly

[Rusty Edge]

Well, took us about a month to get to a thousand deaths, but the second thousand only took an extra 48 hours.

We're 5th in critical cases, and 3rd in deaths/day.

Meanwhile, all the promises of drive through testing at big box stores hasn't materialized because we don't have the tests to supply the stations , or the reagents and labs to process them.

So- not enough tests, protective equipment, thermometers, or ventilators. No vaccine. No drug. No anti-serum ( although there may be before sooner than a vaccine )
Leaving stay home and wait it out as our only strategy option. Meanwhile, there are still open beaches in Florida.

[Geo]

Well, took us about a month to get to a thousand deaths, but the second thousand only took an extra 48 hours.

Welcome to the cascade.

On my side the federal security council estimates we're going to hit the peek of the pandemic in the first week of April. If people follow the lockdown measures that is, but in general that seems the case sofar.

It was eerie driving home from work last night. I saw less then a dozen cars in passing, and perhaps half a dozen people walking around. And that on a Saturday night.
On my normal 'countryside' route I have to cross several main roads, and the traffic lights often switched to green before I even reached them.

[E_T]

Yeah, big deal about setting up Drive through testing at the Convention Center, and they only have enough test to do about 250 per day...  Might as well not even do it...

[Rusty Edge]

Quite a press conference today.
On the positive -
*[Sleezebag] seems to finally grasp the concept that 2.2 million people could die in the USA.
* [Sleezebag] has now extended his "15 days to slow the spread " restrictions through the end of April, rather than talking about filling the churches for Easter Sunday and getting the economy going again.
* In a week, Abbott Labs will have 50 thousand  5-15 minute tests available at hospitals/clinics across the country.
* Fauci believes the current trajectory is only 1-2 hundred thousand dead. Yes, I think that's positive in light of our many missteps to this point.

As for the negative-
He got bogged down in denying his previous statements, insulting reporters, bragging about his TV ratings, and being incredulous that facemask demand has suspiciously increased 10X and needs to be investigated, etc.

[E_T]

What  a doffus...

[Buster's Uncle]

North Carolina went on lockdown three hours ago.

[Rusty Edge]

PSA- Tomorrow is All Fools Day.  Be skeptical, cruel pranks will exploit the pandemic.

[Rusty Edge]

I failed to note that the USA has raised their ranking from #8 to #6, bypassing France and South Korea in the number of cases a couple days ago. I truly believe that we will reach number one, in spite of our lack of testing swabs, kits, and labs doing the tests. Or rather because of it.

Well, Dr. Anthony Fauci  did say indirectly on Monday that the window on that had closed, and our last, best hope was to isolate ourselves immediately and cross our fingers.

I'm watching today's press conference because the promised topic was the models that convinced [Sleezebag] to extend the lockdown recommendation through all of April.

Again, my paraphrase, but Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brix are confirming my earlier impression. We were on the Italian trajectory, and our only hope was to lock down as best we are able immediately.  As a result our best scenario is now 1-200K dead, rather than 1-2.2 million dead. That presumes we isolate as much as possible for another month.

[The far east Asia scenarios are already off the table. They depend on testing, personal protective gear, thermometers, and hand sanitizer that we don't have or don't have in use as yet. Not to mention a level of obedience and/or authoritarianism that wouldn't fly in the USA. ]

[Rusty Edge]

Pence got called out on the millions of tests promised by now, and the universal availability. Eventually he admitted that Yes, we have moved past that.

On the positive side, the states of California and Washington seem to be succeeding at "flattening the curve" by over-reacting quickly. So far preventing their hospital systems from being overwhelmed and worsening their survival rates. I figure they are better at the whole work from home transition.

I also see a pattern of infections in hub airport cities. Also, keeping things open for Mardi Gras, Spring Break, and filling the bars on St. Patrick's Day helped get us where we are now, thinking 100-200K dead is a good outcome. Of course the projections probably assume that the medical workers will not run out of protective gear and  start dying.

 I still think a significant problem that isn't being addressed is the hospitalization rate. 5% Of those infected will be hospitalized in serious or critical condition whether or not they survive. Can people afford that if they are out of work? Most get their health insurance through their employer. I have insurance, but I expect my insurer to go bankrupt during the pandemic. That worry should be a big incentive for people to try to avoid the disease if at all possible.

[Rusty Edge]

ANECDOTAL-
In my dad's nursing home, there are no visitors, all employees have their temp taken when they come to work, and anybody that tests 110 degrees F or more goes home for 2 weeks. As a result, they have had practically no colds or flu since. Healthiest late winter/spring ever for them.

My mother in law's nursing home is pretty strict about people coming and going, too. For good reason-

In southeast Wisconsin there are two infection clusters. a) There are nursing homes that were cross contaminated by a nursing service. b) Young black men in the city proper. There is speculation about a link to some street drug, but since the slang terminology is meaningless to me I don't know if it's something that is smoked or shared, etc. Or maybe it's being spread by secret handshakes or something.

[Buster's Uncle]

110?  I congratulate anyone with the stamina to make the walk inside from the parking lot with a temp that high...

[Unorthodox]

 

110?  I congratulate anyone with the stamina to make the walk inside from the parking lot with a temp that high...

No doubt such a fever is very effective in killing all the bugs though, no wonder they go home for 2 weeks. 

[Unorthodox]

Projections don't have Utah hitting it's peak for another 3 weeks, even as we get more aggressive with the social distancing.  My county seems to be a week behind the epicenter to the south as well, but work's county is ramping up swiftly. 

They've done kind of a 'soft' shelter in place, not really rolling out the police to enforce but pretty much saying quit your [poop].  Mixed effectiveness. 

Interestingly only about 5% of the tests are coming back positive, but I've also learned that many of the people who initially test negative end up testing positive down the road, usually on a third test.  So, the whole tracking of number of tests seems silly to begin with. 

[Buster's Uncle]

110?  I congratulate anyone with the stamina to make the walk inside from the parking lot with a temp that high...

No doubt such a fever is very effective in killing all the bugs though, no wonder they go home for 2 weeks. 

Wouldn't a fever that high be very effective in killing the host?