Corona Virus

[Rusty Edge]

Out of curiosity, I checked availability of drive through test sites again. There's one a couple counties away near the IL border, which I expect will be choked with people who live or work in Chicago. It's been open for a few days. Another is set to open in Milwaukee next week. So there is actual progress on that front.

Not that it matters much how many we swab here a day, because the state lab can only process about 500 tests a day, and they were falling behind by hundreds of test/day early in the week.

Last I heard, the NY state lab had a capacity of 1,000 tests/ day, so presumably they are in a backlog situation as well.

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We beat Iran and Germany, and are now ranked #4. If the state of New York were it's own country, it would be ranked # 8, ahead of South Korea, and USA would be #7, behind France.

Granted the information is only as good as the governments and the testing.

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They finally closed the beaches in FLA. The governor wanted the decisions made locally, as there are a lot of family sized beaches in the panhandle coast that aren't an issue. But spring break economics sapped the political will of local governments, and he was forced to intervene. I don't know that they've closed the bars and restaurants there as yet, but when they do the students will come home to roost.

[Buster's Uncle]

#4, 8, 7 bad or good?

[Rusty Edge]

It's about total number of confirmed cases. China is still #1, but we're coming on strong. The EU would be #1 if they were tabulated that way.

It's probably best to separate the statistics by countries, because the response varies by country. Lots of viral infections originate or are discovered in China/Hong Kong simply because it's where a large share of the planet lives. Calling anything a Chinese flu or virus is meaningless. Also, remember that the official statistics and analysis will be after the fact, much like sports.

So... because S. Korea had trouble recently with SARS, the people demanded that the gov. be better prepared. Even though the first confirmed cases in both the USA and S. Korea were detected on the same day, the approaches were different. While the USA was sending the No Big Deal, Don't Panic message, South Korea had medical supplies on hand and was expediting test development. So their test and isolate strategy protected entire families from being infected. Their initial wave of cases has crested without their healthcare system being overwhelmed. They have hit a plateau with a resolved case death rate of 4%, and only 1% of existing cases in critical condition.

Iran took a denial approach, and even members of the government died. That led to mass graves. Their numbers probably aren't reliable.  Even so, according to the official numbers they are probably at a plateau of sorts now.

I figure Italy is a more apt comparison to the USA in terms of medical care and gov. preparedness, statistical transparency and level of authoritarianism. It's still getting worse. I figure they will surpass China in total cases within a week.

I'll summarize their numbers tonight.

[Geo]

I assume there's someone in charge doing their job there?

At the onset of the pandemic, we still had a 'running affairs' government. This week it became an official one, and could act accordingly. And (almost) no politician is going to publically oppose this.
We're lucky to have a pretty good intensive care system in Belgium. Barely a third of capacity is used at the moment.
Numbers of fatalities and confirmed cases are still on the rise, the former reaching exponential levels, but a couple hundred people people have been released from hospital care too.

[Rusty Edge]

We're #3.
We're crushing Spain with almost 14,000 new cases so far today.

Okay. Italy yesterday.

53,578 total cases
+6,557 new cases
4,825 total dead
+793 new deaths
6,072 total recovered
42,681 active cases
2,857 critical
886 cases/million population

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Another thing. Americans aren't healthy on average. We have a lot of diabetes, heart disease and hypertension. Those patients have worse survival rates.

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On a personal note, last night they discovered a case in my Mother-in-law's facility. It's a big complex, but it would have been in the same building, different floor. Fortunately for her she was personally in quarantine for a cold his week. On the other hand, flu has spread through the place in years past. So it's wait and see.

[Rusty Edge]

Here's an opinion/math piece by a doctor that basically explains my earlier point that a virus always spreads faster and farther than you think.

https://medium.com/@jasonwbae/want-the-current-covid-19-number-in-u-s-multiple-by-90-b2e8841ab778

[Today, the official total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is 13,677. I believe the actual number of infections is closer to 1.25 million, and here is why.
I work as an urgent care physician at the Palo Alto Medical Foundation Urgent Care in Palo Alto, CA, where I help run our outdoor drive-thru clinic for patients experiencing respiratory symptoms.]

[Buster's Uncle]

The Ordinary Sith done messed up too many times...

[E_T]

I've been away for a while and getting caught up...

On the way home we needed gas. I'd been wearing gloves to remind me not to t...ouch my face, but out of habit I took them off to pump gas. You, know, so they don't soak up gas and smell up my coat, etc. But of course gas pumps have keypads and so forth. Foolish mistake.

Wear them until your ready to get back into the car, then strip them off and dispose of them.  If need be, have new ones ready to put on, inside the car...

[Buster's Uncle]

'The taverns are fair full of gadabouts making merry this eve. And though I may press my face against the window like an urchin at a confectioner’s, I am tempted not by the sweetmeats within. A dram in exchange for the pox is an ill bargain indeed.' -Samuel Pepys during the plague

[E_T]

Bars are closed, so no Gadabouts here...   And tonight is the 3rd night of Mandatory Curfew, from 11PM to 5AM.  Most Restaurants are closed, except for Delivery (Uber-Eats for one) and Take-out.  As for Uber-Eats, whom really wants to have someone deliver not only their food, but a dose of the virus as well??  Local Bus is still running, at this time, but I don't know how much longer it will be.  As lots of people are not working, the usage has likely gone down a lot, but not gone away entirely.  When it does, a LOT of people are going to be in even worse shape, due to only having that for getting around...  And the workplaces that are still open will even suffer more. 
Almost all Hotels are closed.
Schools talk about home schooling, but when you have parents whom don't give a damn or send their kids to school so as to not to have to pay for babysitting, etc, having to even think about Home Schooling...  Well, we'll see how long that lasts or the long range repercussions from this spring.
And when it's been hard to even get laptops, etc for school kids, trying to get them to do online schooling, well...
Local News is about to come on, so I'll end this now...

[E_T]

1007 confirmed cases, 17 deaths
Places in US are now considered to be Hotspot locations that are asked about, when pre-screening for possible testing for COVID-19
Some TSA workers at OIA have tested positive
Last of the Local Theme Parks "Fun Spot" will be closing as well.
School Lunches for needy school kids are being given out, but logistics for getting to them is not too clear...
Looks like the 2 Trill relief bill is now stalling, apparently, due to Dems.  Sad, when they (both sides) were working very closely about getting this out in record time...  While another Congressperson tested pos

[sigh]

[E_T]

Sen Rand Paul is 3rd to have been tested Positive for Covid

[Unorthodox]

I need gas this morning.  Hopefully last day of working in office, but if it goes further to [poop], I'm one of the few that could still get into the office, and the only one in my 'department' (best analogy). 

So, the two closest stores to me are Fresh Market and WalMart (the grocery only style)

A little further away is a Maceys, which is basically Fresh Market in bulk, Costco, and Smiths (Originally locally owned, the family tried to pull walmart style crush competition back in the 80s and the locals boycotted them for it, which made it change hands, so it's Kroger but kept the local name)

I tend to prefer Fresh Market for the better meat counter, I've traditionally been in there 3 times a week or so.  Sunday morning we've always gone to get their doughnuts.  This week marked a huge change in the store.  They've gone into full ration mode.  1-2 items per family on most items.  Bakery shut down except for daily break production.  They've also stopped making cuts of beef, and instead are grinding it all with various recipes on how to make it stretch.  Chicken is scarce, but they've got a boat load of turkeys with instructions on how to stretch it, making broth, etc. 

Frozen aisle is devoid of all veggies and potatoes, but individual meals, pizzas, and ice cream are in abundance. 

The other patrons here are all VERY wary of the personal space, and many are wearing gloves and masks if they have them. 

Wanting a little more milk as we're used to getting it for the week, we were forced to go to WalMart. 

Ground beef doesn't exist at walmart, but there are loads of various steaks. Chicken not quite as scarce. 

The frozen foods aisle is full of potatoes and veggies, but the pizzas, ice cream, and individual meals are barren. 

Customers were mostly treating it like just another day, with several heard coughing.  I had to make my own space. 

[E_T]

The thing is, when will it be "safe" for things to start getting moving again?  With the limiting of contacts, stay at homes and such, it will help to keepthe possible infections down to where the medical community is to (Hopefully) keep the people whem get the bad complicatins from dying.  But in the mean time, doiong all of these things will turn this in to timeframes of weeks to months.  People are not going to stay in long enough to allow for that, IMVHO, and thus, you will have spikes of infection that will require the current messures to have to be continued even longer than currently anticipated.

At thi time, this is the real danger...

[Rusty Edge]

Okay. Screw it. At this point the pandemic briefings are more politics and economics than medical. I didn't think it would get to this point so soon. My pandemic thread is open to politics henceforth, because the president can't sort it out.