Corona Virus

[Rusty Edge]

Hopefully we can steer this away from politics, at least to the extent that the complaints are about various levels of gov. foreign and domestic, rather than the American president and his party. There's still a lot of disease territory left for discussion.

I've always been interested in major disease outbreaks, whether it was my grandfather losing half of his siblings when he was a kid, tales/memories of polio and the vaccine, being a hog farmer, reading about herpes, AIDS, West Nile, and Zika. Yeah, after West Nile traversed New York state upwind the first summer, and Zika came along which had both mosquito and human sexual transmission I was expecting a pandemic. It's a century since the Spanish Flu, we're due.

I should confess that I have respiratory issues. I have genetically  original lungs, while 98% of the surviving population has a mutation that toughens the tissue, so I have had spontaneously collapsed lungs a couple of times. Wait, there's more. I'm allergic to both penicillin and sulfa classes of antibiotics, so there's fewer options to treat me fore pneumonia. Also, I have something called cough synchope. That's a nerve malfunction regarding constriction of the carotid regulating blood pressure to the brain. It means that when I cough very much, I faint and go into convulsions. For that matter, when my dad died of cancer, he drowned in his own fluids. So I'd really rather not get sick, and I can relate to strangers suffering and dying from respiratory issues, and the suffering it causes those who care about them.

To create a famine, you need to combine nature ( drought ) and human nature ( war). The Spanish Flu pandemic combined the disease with the global mobilization of the first World War. This time we seem to be combining a disease and some governments in denial.

So I understand that we can't have a pandemic thread without frequent gov references.

[Buster's Uncle]

I wonder.  Honestly, the only reason I've been taking the latest virus outta China seriously is because of a certain notorious liar saying not to.  I only exaggerate slightly to say it does this every year, like the weatherman on TV ginning up tornado panic every time there's a thunderstorm in the viewing area.  Someday, all the crying wolf is gonna be the death of me because I stopped believing anything and the disaster threat was real.

That point raised, colleges are shutting down, right left and center, and both Sanders and Biden earlier called off rallies in Detroit tonight that would have started a few minutes ago.  There's a real thing going on, regardless.

As for me personally, I rarely set foot out of the house anyway, and Spring allergy season, when I need to wash my hands and face several times a day, would have set in by the end of the month anyway.  I hope nobody tracks in 19 crows here, but Mom's a 65-sort of going-on-80 and I'm not worried about Mylochka and I doing worse than having a bad week at all.

It IS tough to leave politics out of it.

[Rusty Edge]

Yeah, I'm not worried about you, you hermit. Did I ever tell you that's what I wanted to be when I grew up?

The following isn't meant to be argumentative. More explanatory.

To me this is exactly like a vaccine discussion.  Nobody gets ( polio/measles/chicken pox/whatever) any more, why worry? The reason nobody gets it is because most people take simple precautions. Sometimes simple precautions take the form of a vaccine, sometimes it's more about common sense anti-viral measures. As long as that holds true, we're good. When a critical mass goes into denial and don't do those things, people suffer and die. IF it turns out to be overblown, it's because overreacting quickly is the way to beat a disease, because they spread faster or farther than you thought. It's because simple precautions and containment worked.

I sure hope it does turn out to be overblown. I'm worried about these church people who continue with the greetings/common cup communion/healing hands. I'm worried about more nursing homes being wiped out. My dad is in one, and my mother visits him 6 days a week in drivable weather. My MiL is in one too, and she has lung issues.

IF we had accurate information, we might know what the death rate is. It might be 19 times more lethal than flu. It might be around 40. It's complicated because it's already mutated into two strains, and the mortality and infectiousness hasn't been sorted out. I'm sure that both infections and deaths are under reported. In between the infection rate and the mortality is the hospitalization rate, and we're not talking about that. People can look at something and figure they won't be the ones to die, so why worry? I think they should be more concerned about their chances of going on a ventilator, but that's just me.

I've got more to do before bed. I hope to get to various governments tomorrow.

[Rusty Edge]

On a lighter note-

https://twitter.com/jenmercieca/status/1237537814075412481  Here's a discussion of switching Corona and Corvid 19 in the songs "My Sharona" and "Come on Eileen"

[Buster's Uncle]

I note that Italy is currently closed for everything, which strongly tends to rule out wolf-crying...

[ColdWizard]

I was tracking official WHO cases for South Korea, Italy, and Iran for a while before my trip to Venice was cancelled. Nice steep curves were starting for Italy and Iran.

I find the Australia/US panic runs on toilet paper to be baffling. Also not real sure about the bottled water either. If it gets into the public water, I assume we're all flipped anyway. If not, tap water should be as fine as ever.     I got a little canned food and whatnot.

[Raaf]

Today the first two diagnosed cases turned up in my province and city, Groningen, the Netherlands. We were the last province free from it, but I expected it to arrive anyway, yesterday evening I declined a diner invitation down town from my grand-daughter, because, I wouldn't feel comfortable spending hours with strangers in a closed room.

One of the cases is a 21 year old student who returned from Italy two weeks ago, the other is an older woman in the rural part of the province, and nobody knows how she contracted the virus.

I think Merkel is right, and in the end the majority of people will get exposed to the virus.

So me being careful to avoid it, is really just trying to flee the unavoidable. I am 64 and reasonably healthy, and the odds are not too bad, but not still not neglectable.

[Rusty Edge]

I note that Italy is currently closed for everything, which strongly tends to rule out wolf-crying...

Yeah, the day they had 145 deaths and forbid funerals, I figured it was on.

[Rusty Edge]

Well, the president made a national address to announce that it's actually a pandemic, rather than a hoax.  So it's official.

Also, the NCCAA tournament will have no audiences in the stands.
Travel between Europe and the USA is suspended.
The NBA is suspending the season.

Oh, and nursing homes should be quarantined.

[Rusty Edge]

Also, Tom Hanks and his wife have it, and they are in Australia, where it is still technically summer. That doesn't support the theory that this will go away when summer arrives.

[Rusty Edge]

More sports have followed suit, whether out of concern for lawsuits or personal safety, I don't know.
Baseball spring training is expected to be canceled and the pro baseball season delayed.
NHL hockey has been suspended until further notice, following the NBA's lead. Many teams share facilities.
The PGA will play, but without audiences.
NASCAR sounds like it will race without audiences, but some cities are simply postponing events.

[Buster's Uncle]

The Supreme Court, Las Vegas shows, Broadway...


P.S.  Virtually impossible to discuss in any depth whatsoever w/o politics.

[Rusty Edge]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/first-china-then-italy-what-the-us-can-learn-from-extreme-coronavirus-lockdowns/2020/03/11/1cfaa07c-630e-11ea-912d-d98032ec8e25_story.html

I subscribe to the Washington Post ( to piss off a particular politician ), so that may be reflected in my choice of news sources.

Anyway, this article says that the winning strategies include testing, transparency, quickly isolating sick or suspected patients, limiting public gatherings, and suspending public transport.

On the other hand, mandatory gov lockdowns tend to cause people to panic, hop in their cars and spread the infections.

[Rusty Edge]

The Supreme Court, Las Vegas shows, Broadway...


P.S.  Virtually impossible to discuss in any depth whatsoever w/o politics.

I know. But I have reluctantly abandoned a couple of forums that I truly enjoyed simply because  every thread became a political battlefield between regulars who disagreed and became angrier.  I don't want to see that here, too.

My wife tells me to add Princess Cruises to the suspension list.

[Rusty Edge]

For what it's worth-
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Dividing the total deaths by the total cases, I calculate the current rolling mortality rate @ 3.7%
Of course, the info is only as honest as the govs. concerned.

The global closed case mortality is 7%