What does the Brexit vote mean?

[Unorthodox]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/brexit-vote-u-k-politics-meltdown-after-referendum-n599471


Sounds like they voted without much of a plan to enact such a possibility of the vote passing? 

[Spacy]

time is on their side I think.

I am sure the EU would rather it be quick like a bandaid, but Brit should take their time, do it right.

For everybody else, it will be a time of panic (yay wall street - grow a pair already) that will hopefully keep interest rates down for the next year or so (when I look to get my own home construction loan!)

[Dale]

time is on their side I think.

I am sure the EU would rather it be quick like a bandaid, but Brit should take their time, do it right.

For everybody else, it will be a time of panic (yay wall street - grow a pair already) that will hopefully keep interest rates down for the next year or so (when I look to get my own home construction loan!)

Wouldn't EU want it to be as long and painful as possible?  Show all the other dissident states just how freakin' hard it is to leave?

[Spacy]

From the little I have seen on TV (been sick and at same time recovering surgery, so not much else to do but sleep and listen to TV), it sounds like the EU want article 50 enacted ASAP so that they have a chance to see where they stand.  Right now, the EU is so discombobulated that they really have no clue what will happen when/if they go.

Britain has a few things it needs to take care of.  Setting up passports, border controls, etc, that were all basically dismantled.  So, it makes sense for Britain to take its time and make sure that things get done right.  One thing that may happen is that right now a lot of EU people are inside britain living & working - how do you address them?  Stuff like that. 

Sounds like most EU supporters are hoping to rush things to get things messed up so they can have a big "I told you so" moment, but fortunately calmer heads seam to be prevailing. 

[Valka]

Well, it does mean some damage control will be necessary for some of Canada's trade treaties.

But I think that another reason for Canada to keep an eye on this is to see whatever fallout there may be so the separatists (whether in Quebec or Alberta) can see that it's not going to be an easy thing... and hopefully some of them will shut up.

[Buster's Uncle]

It never seems to work that way with extremists, anything but boredom shutting them up...

[Kirov]

The results can range only from bad to catastrophic. It really matters what kind and range of context you apply.

What surely happened is that one country seriously undermined its own potential and the entire bloc's in the process. Regardless of what kind of deal they strike with the EU, it will never be as good as full membership - otherwise, there would be no point in full membership at all. There will numerous blows to the UK's GDP, ranging from lower EU grants to the banks moving out from the City. Brexit politicians know this and had known before the poll, which is why they all resigned in the wake of it - they didn't want to put their name on something which simply can't go well for the UK (Theresa May was a Remainer, so she has a different start and is not expected to deliver the shamelessly false promises of Brexiteers). Have you seen the face of Boris Johnson when it turned out that he 'won'? His 'oh, crap' would be hilarious if not for the entire context.

More long run - Scotland will be quite likely to leave the UK, so there goes 'taking your country back'. Scotland, N Ireland, London and even Gibraltar currenly hate 'Little England'. Continent-wise, 'Europe of two speeds' will likely follow, with the Eurozone core integrating faster, leaving behind the marauders. Several countries (including Hungary and Poland) started to slide into not-really-democracies already and the 'two speeds' will only foster this process. No matter what the end result is, the importance of the EU on the global playing field can only diminish, Putin emerging as the biggest winner (he's probably yet to sober up after the poll).

And even bigger picture - since I can't recall a single good piece of international news since 2008, the poll is to me yet another proof that the West is currently in the process of committing a spectacular suicide. The political establishment cares only about the economic one and is unable to pull off any real changes, which triggers ordinary people to happily embrace the idea of cutting off their nose to spite the face. Between the wealth gap, unregulated financial sector, strangling of Greece, immigration crises, nationalism, bigotry and islamophobia (which is exactly the objective terrorists aim to achieve), populists probably just can't believe their luck. It would require a tremendous amount of work to solve the problems we have on our plate right now and the number of problems actually gets only bigger.

The Brexit increases the chance of [Sleezebag]'s winning, too and yes, that will be the end of the world as we know it. Unless an impeachment procedure follows soon due to some legal issues. The Western world will be upended, one way or another.

You can say that [Sleezebag]'s won't win, but to some extent, it's not the entire point. The very fact that the US is even toying with the idea of giving full power to someone more comically grotesque than most African warlords speaks volumes about the state of minds on both sides of the Atlantic. And don't be so quick on 'it's not gonna happen', too. If I had bet you USD 1000 in April that [Sleezebag] would get the nomination, I have no doubts that your wallets would be one grand thinner by now.

There is only silver lining of the Brexit, hinted by Valka - the pro-EU sentiment has risen in the EU, now that common people could see how really, really dumb was what the Brits did. Hopefully, some [Sleezebag] followers will take a look at the actual results of 'making your country great again' through discarding all the stuff which made it great in the first place. Hopefully.

But even, 'nearly avoiding a complete catastrophe' will be the biggest success of the Western community. Somehow, it fails to impress me or fill me with optimism.

I remember that one year ago, I told a friend of mine that it's 1933 all over again. Now I have no doubts that the clock is still ticking, if not even faster.

[Rusty Edge]

Okay, Kirov. I won't try again to reassure you that a [Sleezebag] election can't happen.


Perhaps you can explain to me why the Brexit makes a [Sleezebag] election more likely. I doubt if even one in four Americans knows the term. Those that do seem to be putting their own worldviews upon the explanation they chose. I don't understand why it would affect the decision process of anybody voting in our election. Most of us just don't care very much about Brexit. Our stock markets are in the territory of new highs.

[Dale]

I get the feeling Kirov is one of those who won't accept democracy and that a majority believe it will be better to leave EU.

[DrazharLn]

I voted to remain in the EU and I'm rather annoyed that so many voted otherwise. The Vote Leave campaign was based almost exclusively on lies and I believe that many people who voted leave will be dissappointed in the eventual settlement.

Concerningly, the brexit vote has been taken by some as a license for racist and xenophobic behaviour and reports of this kind of behaviour are up by 50% or more compared to this time last year. This has the effect of alienating foreign born and foreign looking residents and many report that they feel threatened and are planning to leave the country.

I believe that the main effects of Brexit will be:

1. Massive lost growth (already the UK's economy is valued 10% lower and our currency is getting weaker)
2. Break up of the UK if the UK Government fails to negotiate a settlement with the EU that the Scots like
3. Loss of freedom of movement
4. More hostile atmosphere for foreigners in the UK

[DrazharLn]

Here's the most interesting analysis of the vote itself: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

[Rusty Edge]

"•Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

Interesting. So do you think it was that 33% that made the difference ?

[Kirov]

Okay, Kirov. I won't try again to reassure you that a T rump election can't happen.


Perhaps you can explain to me why the Brexit makes a T rump election more likely. I doubt if even one in four Americans knows the term. Those that do seem to be putting their own worldviews upon the explanation they chose. I don't understand why it would affect the decision process of anybody voting in our election. Most of us just don't care very much about Brexit. Our stock markets are in the territory of new highs.

Perhaps I put it in a wrong way. I’m not saying that the Brexit affects the Nov election, I’m saying it puts this election in a new light.

First of all, you’ve got the polls. It’s a common thing that imbeciles and populists are underestimated in the polls as people are ashamed to admit whom they’d actually vote for. There is a margin, bigger or smaller, which you should often add to the result of someone universally hated and panned in the mainstream media. Happened many times in history.

I looked at the Leave-Remain and Clinton-Pig polls. They almost overlap up until the voting day. First there is a long streak of 55-45 for the ‘saner’ option, then the gap is only getting smaller and smaller. And with the Brexit, the reversal eventually comes and the rest becomes history.

Oh, and the 80/20 chances predicted by that guy you linked to in the other thread? Funny thing – 80/20 were precisely the odds for Remain given by London bookies less than 24 hrs before the vote.

Secondly, the Brexit renders moot any reasoning along the lines of “people aren’t that stupid” and any variations thereof. Maybe they’re not that stupid, but they do seem desperate enough at least to try something extraordinarily stupid. I can imagine that the pig takes at least some Sanders votes, no matter what Bernie says. When people get frustrated or angry, you can’t really expect them to make rational decisions. And the pig appears to be made out of Teflon, so you can’t count on any scandal emerging as nothing really sticks to that guy. So while any non-Dem/Rep candidates or domestic issues or healthy economy or whatever else can affect my judgment of the outcome, the “he’s too cartoonish to win” mantra is of zero relevance to me right now. [Sleezebag] could vow revenge to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and still have solid chances for the office.

Thirdly, there seems to be a certain symmetry of attitudes in the Anglo-Saxon world on both sides of the pond.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/05/thatcher-reagan-blair-clinton-brexit-[Sleezebag]-boris-johnson/

(make sure to correct the pig's name in the URL)

Look, I’m not saying that the pig will win. All I’m saying is that I don’t see enough grounds to dismiss this possibility. And 20% is still freakin’ huge in my book. “Hey, Kirov, look at that cliff! Let’s jump from it, you’ve got only 20% to break your neck!”.

What I’m most concerned is the unbroken string of bad news since 2008. If you went back in time and told me all of this back then, I’d have literally asked you about your depression. What keeps happening is really a steady sequence of ‘nah, it’s too bad to actually happen’s followed by ‘hey, maybe it won’t be that bad after all?’s.

And the funniest thing is, I can’t recall the last time I wanted to be wrong so badly. I hope so much that you're right!

[Kirov]

I get the feeling Kirov is one of those who won't accept democracy and that a majority believe it will be better to leave EU.

What DrazharLn said. The democratic process is all about 'informed decisions', and the Brexit was precisely the opposite of that. Read more about the blatantly false statement about GBP 350 million sent to the EU daily, and how they backpedalled on the promise to give it to the Health Service right there and then at 6 AM (!) after the voting night. Or about the role of Boris Johnson in all of this, who never actually wanted to Leave, but dreamt about improving his position in the Tory party. For that matter, the same goes for Cameron. Read about prominent Brexiteers using the word 'expert' as derogatory (!!) because how dare the economists speak about economy. And how they promised access to single market without free flow of people, which is another outrageous lie and could never happen. Or find out more about Murdoch's tabloids, which often read like Der Sturmer and Volkisher Beobachter. I mean, I understand immigration concerns - inflow of people is good for your country long-term, but it's still a social challenge to be dealt with - but there are immigration concerns and then there is rabies. Guess which one was the way of Daily Mail.

The Brexit was about as democratic as the Salem incident - the majority sure got its way, but when the insanity is over, everyone involved is in for a massive hangover.

[Buster's Uncle]

Okay, Kirov. I won't try again to reassure you that a T rump election can't happen.


Perhaps you can explain to me why the Brexit makes a T rump election more likely. I doubt if even one in four Americans knows the term. Those that do seem to be putting their own worldviews upon the explanation they chose. I don't understand why it would affect the decision process of anybody voting in our election. Most of us just don't care very much about Brexit. Our stock markets are in the territory of new highs.

Perhaps I put it in a wrong way. I’m not saying that the Brexit affects the Nov election, I’m saying it puts this election in a new light.

First of all, you’ve got the polls. It’s a common thing that imbeciles and populists are underestimated in the polls as people are ashamed to admit whom they’d actually vote for. There is a margin, bigger or smaller, which you should often add to the result of someone universally hated and panned in the mainstream media. Happened many times in history.

I looked at the Leave-Remain and Clinton-Pig polls. They almost overlap up until the voting day. First there is a long streak of 55-45 for the ‘saner’ option, then the gap is only getting smaller and smaller. And with the Brexit, the reversal eventually comes and the rest becomes history.

Oh, and the 80/20 chances predicted by that guy you linked to in the other thread? Funny thing – 80/20 were precisely the odds for Remain given by London bookies less than 24 hrs before the vote.

Secondly, the Brexit renders moot any reasoning along the lines of “people aren’t that stupid” and any variations thereof. Maybe they’re not that stupid, but they do seem desperate enough at least to try something extraordinarily stupid. I can imagine that the pig takes at least some Sanders votes, no matter what Bernie says. When people get frustrated or angry, you can’t really expect them to make rational decisions. And the pig appears to be made out of Teflon, so you can’t count on any scandal emerging as nothing really sticks to that guy. So while any non-Dem/Rep candidates or domestic issues or healthy economy or whatever else can affect my judgment of the outcome, the “he’s too cartoonish to win” mantra is of zero relevance to me right now. T rump could vow revenge to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and still have solid chances for the office.

Thirdly, there seems to be a certain symmetry of attitudes in the Anglo-Saxon world on both sides of the pond.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/05/thatcher-reagan-blair-clinton-brexit-T rump-boris-johnson/

(make sure to correct the pig's name in the URL)

Look, I’m not saying that the pig will win. All I’m saying is that I don’t see enough grounds to dismiss this possibility. And 20% is still freakin’ huge in my book. “Hey, Kirov, look at that cliff! Let’s jump from it, you’ve got only 20% to break your neck!”.

What I’m most concerned is the unbroken string of bad news since 2008. If you went back in time and told me all of this back then, I’d have literally asked you about your depression. What keeps happening is really a steady sequence of ‘nah, it’s too bad to actually happen’s followed by ‘hey, maybe it won’t be that bad after all?’s.

And the funniest thing is, I can’t recall the last time I wanted to be wrong so badly. I hope so much that you're right!

I think all your mention of 2008 is entirely too kind to the Cheney Bund.  There's where the trouble started - IF you want to not provoke the know-nothings by tracing it all the way back to the Reagan movement...