Are Extraterrestrial Civilizations Likely to Evolve?

[Unorthodox]

http://www.universetoday.com/129092/alien-minds-extraterrestrial-civilizations-likely/

Interesting article that goes into examining how rather sophisticated cognition has evolved across various species from insects to cephalopods to vertebrates. 

For example, cognitive skills like social learning and teaching, generalizing from examples, using tools, recognizing individuals of one’s species, making plans, and understanding spatial relationships have all been shown to exist in arthropods (an animal group consisting of insects, spiders, and crustaceans). The evidence shows the surprising power of the diminutive brains of insects, and indicates that we know little of the relationship between brain size and cognitive ability.

Termite mounds demonstrate that architecture and agriculture are not unique to humans. Housing one to two million inhabitants, they can reach 5 meters (17 feet) or more in height, and also extend beneath the surface of the ground. They are organized to ensure that appropriate levels of oxygen, moisture, and temperature are maintained. Although the inhabitants of a termite mound collectively weigh only 15 kilograms (33 lb), a typical mound will, in an average year, move a quarter of a metric ton (550 lb) of soil, and several tons of water. Using carefully prepared plant materials, termites “farm” a species of fungus that occupies eight times more space in the mound than they do.

Molluscs, a group of animals that includes slugs and shellfish, have also produced a group of brainy animals; the cephalopods. The cephalopods include octopuses, squids, and cuttlefish. The octopus has the most complex nervous system of any animal without a backbone. As the product of a different evolutionary path, the octopus’s sophisticated brain has a plan of organization that is completely alien to that of more familiar animals with backbones.

The third group to have produced sophisticated brains are the vertebrates; animals with backbones. They include fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals, including human beings. Although all vertebrate brains bear a family resemblance, complex brains have evolved from simpler brains many separate times along different paths of vertebrate evolution, and each such brain has its own unique characteristics.

I have quibbles with bits of the assertions.  But this works better as a poll/discussion than news. 

[Buster's Uncle]

It's pretty improbable that is hasn't happened.  Some of us were kicking it around pretty recently when someone published a thorough update of the Drake Equation - which was a house of assumption cards, and still is even with all the recent data about extra-solar planets.

-Cue Lori explaining it thoroughly and well for the uninitiated...

[Unorthodox]

It's pretty improbable that is hasn't happened.  Some of us were kicking it around pretty recently when someone published a thorough update of the Drake Equation - which was a house of assumption cards, and still is even with all the recent data about extra-solar planets.

-Cue Lori explaining it thoroughly and well for the uninitiated...

The article above basically says intelligence is relatively common, but "civilization" on the level of humans is unlikely.  I think their benchmark of 'civilization' swings wide of the mark, though I'm not sure what mark I would particularly use either.  For example, their argument that human speech being unique in it's ability to express complex issues is tenuous, when crovids are known to be able to describe a human face well enough to other corvids they will recognize the individual.  That's something humans even struggle with.  Let alone bees giving complex directions.

[Buster's Uncle]

As I was trying to say above, we just don't know enough to usefully speculate beyond the conclusion made in my first sentence, which is quite tenuous itself.

[Rusty Edge]

I figure it's possible, it's a big galaxy and a bigger universe, but due to the variety of star maturities, I doubt if they would even exist at the same time.

[Eadee]

I think a civilisation comparable to ours is likely to evolve somewhere at some time.

However, there are two factors in why I doubt we will see any of them soon.
First, it takes a long time for live evolving to such a point and compared to that time it takes almost no time until some incident whipes out the civilisation completely.

Second, developing a technology for travel above lightspeed seems to me less likely than humanity (or whatever alien civilisation) to destroy itself.

So my theory is, in the Bilions, Trilions and whatever number of years the Galaxy has seen and will see... there will be plenty of intelligent life developing occasionally. But two or more of them meeting each other is pretty damn rare.

[Buster's Uncle]

^Logic.

[Oerdin]

I think life won't be that uncommon but a lot of places where life arises it will also get destroyed by climate change or because of a super nova going off to close to it.   So life arises a lot but often doesn't survive much less becomes intelligent and forms civilizations which become advanced enough.   We are talking extraordinary leaps built up extraordinary leaps.