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Because Earthmichael is very experienced playing in games where going for AAA will mean he'll get to D:AP as soon as (or even before) you get AAA, and then he can use needlejets for ZoC and stacking and terraforming destruction to beat you. If you don't need D:AP to counter D:AP (my proposed fix), then AAA as a counter to air power becomes a lot more appealing.Experience can tell what happens, not what will happen after a given modification. For that, you need theory.
Well, as the saying goes: "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."
But really, I'm going to state here what is probably like the most obvious thing in the world - you can't tell how much experience is important if you don't have experience yourself. And yes, I believe you do need exp to tell what will happen, because to tell what will happen it is necessary to know what happens right now. It's really simple - if you introduce a certain change to an environment, you won't be able to properly predict the post-change milieu if you don't know how it looks pre-change.