By 2128, more student protests have erupted at Copernicus Canal (i.e. I bought it), and I got asked where did the 2nd probe team come from. And then I realized there wasn't a simple answer to that question. So I just wanted to share how this cluster**** came into being, because it was both planned and accidental in equal measure.
It started in the early 2120s, a few years after I first discovered CEO Howell's HQ. Naturally, infiltrating him was the first thing I did, and sending all available probes (by which I mean 'two') to loot the techs was 2nd. I could get the techs by trade (and ended up doing so anyway, by compensating for what was stolen), but probes were a contingency plan in case I were to be refused. One of them stole the tech - that is the incident I was referring to in this thread, - while the other lied in wait until he has researched something else. At this point I had no plans for war whatsoever.
The University, though, was always intended to be a target. Seriously, you do not place a faction with ++PROBE next door to a faction with --PROBE and expect anything different. Make that a very dangerous faction with great research capabilities, good weapons, access to Mount Planet and Seafaring, all the while eyeing my prospected land for potential base placements (we were competing for the same spots, which is why my third base on the continent was placed suboptimally - I didn't know how much time I have left to make a territory claim) - and the outcome was all but decided. So I was preparing for war with Uni the moment I met them, and I knew the war would be waged with probes.
So I sent a scout to Howell's continent, way too far from his HQ to be a threat, to attack a Fungal Tower I spotted on the shore, because I needed money for the war with University. I only intended to collect a few pods in Howell's territory, and then die to a stray mind worm once the scout's luck runs out.
I was also planning to set up more bases closer to University, to allow my probes easier access inside their territory. However, a transport foil carrying a Colony Pod from my starting island encountered an Isle of the Deep, and had to be swiftly rerouted towards the nearest land, which happened to be Howell's continent.
By then, the plan became thus: set up a permanent foothold in Howell's territory to steal his techs and have probes remain on the same continent. Don't outright attack him, and if he tries to attack instead, mind control his units. The probe I hid near Howell Interstellar was meant to stay put until my outpost was built.
However, Howell began preparing for war - or at least for active defense - and rerouted his production to 2-1-2 Rovers. If he had a rover by the next turn, my probe could get deported, or my intended outpost base could get wiped out before it produced a probe to defend. I could not wait anymore, so I gave the order to delay the Rover production by whatever means necessary. Thus my Veteran probe got the Commando promotion by blowing up the Recycling Tanks, and got teleported to the Opticommons base... right next to the University territory.
My Elite probe team that stole Howell's tech earlier was already boarding a boat. You can see the Commando probe, fresh from Howell's continent, sitting in the base with its moves expended. That was year 2125.
By year 2127, the Elite has successfully disembarked from the transport, and was preparing for an assault on Outremer Field Research:
The assault cost me 93 credits. Pretty cheap, all things considered! The attack was timed - the base was about to grow in size, and size acts as a cost multiplier. I was not keen on paying 186 credits, so I had to strike this year if I was going to achieve anything at all.
Through an earlier infiltration I knew the locations of the University bases, and knew the Copernicus Canal is located right next to the OFR. It was building a Colony Pod before the attack (and was 2/3 done), but I knew it'd be rerouted towards military units. If the Uni builds a 4-1-2 HI-laser rover there, I'll be toast since I have no military to reinforce the captured base. So I had to capture Copernicus Canal next turn. But how?
The Commando probe was ready to board the transport foil, but it only had 2 moves, and disembarking takes 1 of those. If only it had 3 moves, it could use the first to disembark, the 2nd to enter OFR, and the third one to move across the road right into Copernicus Canal. Therefore, I have expended 40 credits to change my government form to Fundamentalism... just to have a single unit move faster, because it was critical to the campaign.
Next turn (or should I say, this turn), Copernicus Canal has fallen. It cost me 172 credits to get it (which is a ridiculous amount - how come it costs TWICE as much as OFR even though it is farther from HQ!?), but at least I won't have to worry about Uni's counter-offensive for a few turns.
Meanwhile, on Howell's continent the scout that was never meant to be an attacking unit found an undefended base located in the Garland Crater. It was too good of a prize not to take.
However, it served another purpose. I knew Howell has completed his 2-1-2 Rover prototype, and it was moving to intercept me. By looking at the unit's orientation on the support tab, I could guess its approximate position. So I moved my own Rover behind the scout so that it could ambush Howell's once Howell kills the scout. For the moment, the base is safe, but there are more military units built by Howell every turn. We'll see how long it'll last.
There they are, the chronicles of this war. A bunch of coincidences and plans overlapping into one fine mess. if not for the IotD, I would not be at war with Howell. If not for Howell's cautious response to build his rovers, I would not order my 2nd probe to strike prematurely, and probably wouldn't be wandering the Garland Crater trying to bait them out either. If I didn't strike prematurely, I would have kept the 2nd probe on Howell's continent, and not had it teleported right next to the Univerity, where it ended up changing the course of war.