Will there be a nuclear war?

[Unorthodox]

In honor of the H Bomb of Justice!


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-says-it-has-conducted-a-successful-hydrogen-bomb-test/2016/01/06/9add0e52-b436-11e5-a76a-0b5145e8679a_story.html

TOKYO — World leaders sternly criticized North Korea on Wednesday for carrying out a fourth nuclear test, an explosion that Pyongyang claimed was an exponentially more powerful hydrogen bomb.

However, there was a considerable amount of skepticism about the North's assertion. Nuclear experts and the South Korean military saying that the size of the blast was consistent with an atomic explosion, not an enormous hydrogen bomb.

The United Nations Security Council was set to hold an emergency meeting in New York to discuss the international response to the test, which North Korea called an “H-bomb of justice” that it needed for defense against the United States.

North Korea's three previous nuclear tests since 2006 have been met with international condemnation, including resolutions and sanctions from the Security Council, but have done nothing to deter Pyongyang.

[A look behind the North’s claim]




In Seoul, South Korean President Park Geun-hye put her military on alert and said North Korea would pay the price for the test, which she called a “grave provocation.”

“Now, the government should closely cooperate with the international community to make sure that North Korea pays the corresponding price for the nuclear test,” Park said in a national security council meeting, according to the Yonhap News Agency.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a similar message.

“This nuclear test by North Korea is a major threat to our country’s security, and I absolutely cannot accept it,” he told reporters in Tokyo. “Also, it is clearly a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions so . . . we will take strong measures, including steps within the U.N. Security Council.”

The United States said it was monitoring the situation.

“While we cannot confirm these claims at this time, we condemn any violation of U.N. Security Council Resolutions and again call on North Korea to abide by its international obligations and commitments,” said John Kirby, the State Department spokesman. “We have consistently made clear that we will not accept it as a nuclear state. We will continue to protect and defend our allies in the region, including [South] Korea, and will respond appropriately to any and all North Korean provocations.”




[North Korea also tests limits of Chinese ties]


 A confirmed North Korean nuclear test would be the 2,055th since 1945 View Graphic    
 
But the severity of any response will depend on the level of anger in China and Russia, both veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council and both the closest thing North Korea has to friends.

After the nuclear test in 2013, the first of Kim Jong Un's tenure, China supported expanded sanctions against North Korea, although it's not clear how strictly Beijing has enforced the restrictions on its neighbor.

Still, China also condemned the test Wednesday.

“Today [North Korea] ignored the general objection from the international community and conducted a nuclear test once again. As to this matter, China strongly opposes,” Hua Chunying, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman told reporters in Beijing.

“China will resolutely promote the goal of denuclearization on the peninsula, and stick to solving the peninsula nuclear issues through the six-party talk framework,” she said, referring to long-defunct multilateral talks aimed at convincing North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.

Although China remains North Korea's biggest patron, relations have been severely strained since Kim took power and detonated a nuclear device a month before Xi Jinping took over as president of China.

Russia, which declared 2015 a “year of friendship” with North Korea, also condemned the detonation.

“If in fact the test is confirmed, it would be a new step in the development of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons, a flagrant violation of international law and the existing U.N. Security Council resolutions,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in a statement.

[North Korea’s leader: Scary funny]

She said that Russia wanted to start six-party talks with North Korea as soon as possible.

Separately, a Kremlin spokesman said that “Moscow is extremely concerned.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, who gave Kim a rare foreign invitation for a visit last year, ordered a full study of data from Russia’s monitoring stations, said the spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.




North Korea triggered international tremors when it detonated a device at its main nuclear test site in Punggye-ri Wednesday, the site of its three previous nuclear tests. Pyongyang claimed that it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, a claim that, if true, would mark a huge step forward in its nuclear capability.

“The first H-bomb test was successfully conducted,” the official Korean Central News Agency said in a statement issued shortly after a special announcement was broadcast on state-run television. It said it needed the weapon for defense against the United States, which it described as “the chieftain of aggression” and a “gang of cruel robbers.”

“Nothing is more foolish than dropping a hunting gun before herds of ferocious wolves,” the statement said in North Korea's trademark colorful prose.

But there was immediate questions about the claim, with nuclear experts noting that the yield appeared to be similar to North Korea’s three previous atomic tests, rather than the “enormous” yield that would be expected if it had been a thermonuclear explosion.

Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Calif, said that Wednesday’s explosion looked very similar to past tests and was not enormous, suggesting it was not a hydrogen bomb. South Korean lawmakers told local reporters that the explosion had a yield of about 6 kilotons — making it about the same size as North Korea’s 2013 atomic test.

Either way, Pyongyang’s provocative action will present a new challenge to the outside world, which has struggled to find ways to bring about an end to North Korea’s nuclear defiance.

“North Korea’s fourth test — in the context of repeated statements by U.S., Chinese, and South Korean leaders — throws down the gauntlet to the international community to go beyond paper resolutions and find a way to impose real costs on North Korea for pursuing this course of action,” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

[Valka]

I've noticed that far too many younger people are far too glib about nuclear war. I'm old enough to remember "duck and cover" drills in school; we were conditioned that the second we heard the siren, we were to be under our desks (or the next low piece of furniture if a desk was not available)... as if that would have done any good.

So yeah, I grew up during the Cold War, when nuclear war was something people were very concerned about (if they paid attention to the news). Some of the books on my reading lists in junior and high school English had to do with the aftermath of nuclear war; I was 11 when I first read "There Will Come Soft Rains" from The Martian Chronicles and a few years later I had one of the worst nightmares of my life after a combination of the nightly news and reading The Chrysalids and some other stuff in my high school English class. That was 38 years ago and it's still very memorable... 4 am, November 29, 1977. First anxiety attack I ever had that was brought on by a nightmare and my cat managed to calm me down by biting me (not hard enough to hurt). But when you're 14 and had a vivid dream that your city was just nuked and was on fire... 

Two years later we were still being assigned post-apocalypse literature and poetry in English, and my Grade 12 social studies class - with the exception of a unit on the Industrial Revolution - was nothing but war-related. This included World War III, btw.

Ronald Reagan's election was worrisome, given his musing about "fighting a limited nuclear war over Europe" (at the time I wondered if the Europeans might not object to that) and his joking about nuking Russia ("We start bombing in five minutes").

[Unorthodox]

Reagan?  Heck, you're looking at [Sleezebag] with his finger on the button. 

I do think someone's going to use at least one in an act of aggression at some point in the future.  Possibly the near future. 

Whether it's a 'rogue nation' like North Korea, or some terrorist group that gets their hands on one/some is a crap shoot in my mind.  I'm hopeful the larger parties are smart enough to avoid M.A.D.. 

[vonbach]

I'm not frightened. We all die after all. Besides even a full blown nuclear exchange would be recoverable from.

[Valka]

Reagan?  Heck, you're looking at [Sleezebag] with his finger on the button. 

Well, since Reagan is dead now, I'm no longer worried about him. But I am concerned about [Sleezebag] ending up on the ballot. He's the American version of the sociopath we just tossed out of office here (Stephen Harper). Thank goodness there's no chance of those two being in office at the same time.

[Unorthodox]

I've noticed that far too many younger people are far too glib about nuclear war. I'm old enough to remember "duck and cover" drills in school; we were conditioned that the second we heard the siren, we were to be under our desks (or the next low piece of furniture if a desk was not available)... as if that would have done any good.

They are testing the warning system here as I type...

[Unorthodox]

I'm not frightened. We all die after all. Besides even a full blown nuclear exchange would be recoverable from.

Depends how you define "recoverable". 

[vonbach]

Reagan?  Heck, you're looking at [Sleezebag] with his finger on the button. 

Nothing wrong with [Sleezebag]. At least he's no Obama busily trying to start a war with Russia
or heaven help us the evil queen of hearts Hillary. Besides get used to it barring massive
vote fraud or a bullet [Sleezebag] is probably going to be the next president.

Depends how you define "recoverable".

Just take a look at Hiroshima now or Dresden which was destroyed every bit as thoroughly.

[Rusty Edge]

MAD worked. No direct conflict between nuclear powers. It's the longest period of peace between world powers. World leaders and world powers have too much to lose. Only in such a world cataclysm would their own lives and safety be imperiled. It was when people like Regan began talking about SDI and survivability of a limited nuclear holocaust with another world power that I got a little nervous.

But not everybody is a world leader with so much at stake. A military dictator of a third world country, especially an unstable one, may be perfectly willing to take as many people out as possible when he eventually goes down. Kinda like a sociopathic spree killer.

If a nuclear exchange occurs in my lifetime, I expect it to originate in the Middle East for religious reasons. Zealous religious people who believe their holy writings live a life of sacrifice and look forward to the afterlife. Martyrs are revered, be they St. Stephen or The Prophet or the defenders of Massada. Self preservation doesn't enter into it when you're doing God's will.  With the restoration of the 5th Caliphate of the Sunnis ( which has a strict policy of executing Shiites) , and with the Shiites in the Iranian Theocracy working toward a nuclear weapon and preaching about using it on Israel, and Israel being nuclear capable and inclined toward survival...

I don't fear a self-centered rich person like Hillary or [Sleezebag] risking their own skin and place in history as much as Cruze or one of the other Theocons doing The Lord's work in the Middle East.

[Unorthodox]

Just take a look at Hiroshima now or Dresden which was destroyed every bit as thoroughly.

Too isolated to draw any correlation. 

Full scale would see that happen to most metropolitan areas of the nation/world, overtaxing all humanitarian organizations.   

Hell the EMPs alone would be hard for most people to cope with.  Take Power/water/gas out for any real length and there will be chaos. 

[vonbach]

Too isolated to draw any correlation. 

Not really. Japan and Germany were leveled every bit as thoroughly as if by nuclear weapons. They recovered.
All nukes do is make the mass slaughter quicker.

[Rusty Edge]

Too isolated to draw any correlation. 

Not really. Japan and Germany were leveled every bit as thoroughly as if by nuclear weapons. They recovered.
All nukes do is make the mass slaughter quicker.

Sure, leveled is leveled and burnt to ashes is burnt to ashes.  But that's not all that nuclear weapons do. They have lingering toxic effects, and travelling ones, too. It's kind of like comparing a brushfire and a drought. They both tend to kill everything, but the fire burns itself out and  life can return to the burnt places shortly afterwards. The drought persists, prevents recovery, and sucks the hope away.

[vonbach]

Like I said take a look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. People live there still. Nuclear weapons aren't the world enders that people think they are.

[Mart]

For years I am interested in mystics, predictions of future events, etc. But still I am completely not sure what to make out of it.
On one side, Padre Pio said, there would be no 3rd World War, iirc. That means probably no nuclear strikes.
On the other hand, there is this masonic letter from US to Italy, that was for some time in London museum (?) where all three world wars were planned.
There are also hints, that even more powerful weapons are now available, so even worse than nuclear. (Something Tesla knew?)
And there is much more about things just connected to possible nuclear war. Or something similar. Has anyone listened to interviews of Malachi Martin?

[Rusty Edge]

For years I am interested in mystics, predictions of future events, etc. But still I am completely not sure what to make out of it.
On one side, Padre Pio said, there would be no 3rd World War, iirc. That means probably no nuclear strikes.
On the other hand, there is this masonic letter from US to Italy, that was for some time in London museum (?) where all three world wars were planned.
There are also hints, that even more powerful weapons are now available, so even worse than nuclear. (Something Tesla knew?)
And there is much more about things just connected to possible nuclear war. Or something similar. Has anyone listened to interviews of Malachi Martin?

There are always war plans. It's the job of staff officers to have plans for what they would do in various situations. In fact, that was Napoleon's job before the French Revolution. Then, when something actually happens, they can dust off the plans and adapt them. But even when plans and intentions are the same, they don't always come to pass. Napoleon was planning and preparing to invade England when somebody murdered the Czar, and the new Czar changed sides in the coalition, forcing Napoleon to march on Moscow instead.

Over a hundred years later the Russians were planning to invade Europe to spread communism, but Hitler pre-empted them by two weeks. It was a disaster for both.

I don't know of any super weapons to surpass nukes, but Tesla was way smarter than I am. A hurricane releases more energy, but I don't think anybody has any control of them.

I haven't heard of Malachi Martin.