2017 Hurricane Season things

[E_T]

We all know how Harvey has devastated Texas and all. 

Now we have Irma that is looking like it is going to:
- hit South Florida, around Homestead/Miami.  -
- Pop back out to sea around Indian River/West Palm Beach Counties. 
- Skirt the Coast all the way up to Savannah GA and head to the Carolina Hills.

I am in Orlando at this time and I know that BU is also going to have some effect from this, too.

As to the exact path, it all will depend in the point that it makes it's northerly turn on Saturday Evening.  Turn sooner and will mostly stay in the Atlantic (and still hit somewhere in the Carolinas).  Turn later and more of Florida is impacted as well as GA.

No matter what, it is a very major and dangerous storm and not to be taken lightly.

As of the noon report, it has lost a little of it's strength (both in winds and pressure), but is looking to be hitting South Florida very near to the Cat 4/5 borderline.  It is expected to be Cat 3 when it is closest to me.

The only saving grace that we have with this monster is the fact that it is continuing to move very rapidly and shows no sign of slowing down at all.  If it does a Harvey and lingers or even slows to 1/2 current speed, we would be screwed...  But all of the models are fairly much in agreement as to speed and relative path.

Anyways, I have gas for car and should be in a safe place (very operative phrase) during the storm.

[Buster's Uncle]

I can't get worked up about it until it's closer and they know more, man.  -You're in a state that's not over-blessed with a lot of square miles safe to ride it out, while I'm where we took a direct hit from Hugo and the power was out a few days and we were cutting up downed trees for a long time afterwards, and that was about it.

There's urban areas east and west of us in easy driving distance where it's crowded enough to have some people and buildings in flood plains, but this is not terrain conducive to a lot of that.  We're highly unlikely to get worse than there's some serious cleanup needed in the yard, and I might not be online a few days.  It'd take some Old Testament/end of the world stuff going down to get a real flood here on the family estate.

Momma says that Hugo being all that's worth mentioning in the 77 years she's been observing the local climate may be a clue.


None of which is to say that I don't have real concerns that in this post-Reagan climate, everyone within a few hundred miles of an ocean won't all be living in houses that look like Fred Flintstone's in another generation...

[E_T]

The estimated track has shifted west and it looks to just pass west of Orlando as an estimated Cat 3.  That would also put the fastest winds on our side due to the additive effect of the circulating and forward motion wind components.  The track seems to be taking it also near Atlanta, much further west from the Carolina highlands.

The storm is still looking to be a Cat 4 at landfall, west of Homestead.  The mountains of Cuba and Is of Hispaniola are shredding the outer zones and has sized it down some, but the pressure still is about the same as well as the wind speeds.

[Rusty Edge]

*I was thinking this morning how a person in Miami or the Keys could fly or drive to Atlanta, and still get hit by Irma on a likely track today.
* Irma set a record for the longest duration of 185mph winds.
* With winds as high as 210mph, Irma has been compared to a tornado, 80 miles wide!

[Unorthodox]

I'm always amazed why people choose to live in areas where these things are fairly common. 

I mean, sure, I'm supposed to be destroyed by earthquake at some point, but that's a once every 1000 years or something.  Hurricanes and tornadoes hit every year. 

I'm thinking Montana is the place for me more each day...

[Geo]

I'm thinking Montana is the place for me more each day...

Saskatchewan! 

[Elok]

It's horrible to reflect on what this will do to Miami, whether it recedes to a four or stays at a five or whatever.  Either way, it's a direct hit on a heavily populated and low-lying coastal area.  There's going to be a huge number of refugees.

[Rusty Edge]

Model path projections have shifted from right up the middle of Florida to the gulf coast. Kind of a good news/bad news.

The good news is that it won't hit Miami directly, which is yet another major city barely above sea level in the New Orleans & Houston tradition. Mountainous Cuba has been taking more of the storm than the flat Bahamas, which probably saved lives from storm surge.

The bad news is that if it stays in the Gulf Stream and into the Gulf, it could gain strength, rather than weaken as it would over land. The counter-clockwise rotation could buzz-saw it's way up the gulf coast, doing a Sandy style surge along the way. It might be enough to crush roofs of one story homes, even when walls are concrete. Then there's the wind speed. That's one thing, but designing to withstand the wind is not the same as withstanding a palm trunk or a car hurled by it. Or the danger of a sheet of metal flying at full wind speed.

[E_T]

No matter what, the size of the sustained Hurricane force winds is as wide as the state...

[Spacy]

Ya, looks like granny's house is going to take a direct hit - and she didn't weatherize it before she came up for the summer, and the kin all fled before there was a chance.... hope she has a place to winter at when this is over!

[Green1]

You know, I am getting pretty sick and tired of natural disasters and hardships in general. I genuinely empathize with folks going through this.

I have had more than my share. I lived in New Orleans during Katrina... lost everything. Figured Baton Rouge would be okay, then got hit with all the flooding a while back. I am not including all the lesser stuff like stuff shutting down for evacuations or other drama unrelated like businesses going belly up, layoffs, rent gouging, low paying egotistical employers where you have to work ALL THE TIME just not to be homeless, etc.

Yeah, you may get a bit of FEMA money. But, that is nothing - even if you do get lucky and get a thousand USD or two - compared to losing time from work (even if it is just evacuating), having to find new work, constantly getting messed over through jacked up rents in these places, having to find new jobs, having to rebuy household stuff, etc.

I have had  it. Being wiped out every few years keeps me from really getting ahead or having any peace of mind. The only people that get ahead on disasters are the big retailers who are national and losing a store or two is nothing compared to the sales when everyone needs to replace things, construction companies, and big charities that keep most of it for themselves.

Towards the end of the year, my family and I are probably moving to Soddy Daisy, TN after a scouting mission to make sure everything is on the up and up. It is a suburb town near Chattanooga, TN. Near mountains and all that. We are going to buy an inexpensive 3 BR house out there for around 30 K that is owned by fiends of my partner's family. Try getting something that cheap other than some boondocks place in somewhere no one wants to live with no jobs like Kansas. We ended up blessed with a little change to be able to do it, plus we know folks.

 I feel bad for those stuck in this cycle. I was. It, combined with other things, is a major reason why I have a string of started but not finished dreams.

Yeah, there are disasters everywhere. But I can cope with the .0001 percent chance of a tornado or a fire better than a major clustermess every 5 years or so.

[Buster's Uncle]

Hmm.  Chattanooga is no Mayberry - if you're close enough, you may not be giving up all the urban conveniences you've grown accustomed to.

[Geo]

Do you already have a job there in the area, Green1?

[Green1]

Hmm.  Chattanooga is no Mayberry - if you're close enough, you may not be giving up all the urban conveniences you've grown accustomed to.

Precisely my reasoning.

Mayberry type places suck. The only people who live out in the stick towns are retired folks, folks getting checks, rich folks that own the few businesses out there or are related to those people, and folks stuck out there. Most people move from really small towns eventually unless there is something keeping them there. Not saying these people are bad, but if you are not one of them in small towns you will have a hard time and could get trapped.

I knew a guy who got tired of the drama in Baton Rouge. Dude had a stalker dad who cost him jobs, a crazy room mate, and other stuff I will not go into. He took his last bit of cash, moved to some blip on the map called Ogden, Kansas. What he found there were meth heads, everybody poor, people begging for the one 7 USD an hour job from the maybe 3 businesses, or retired folks out there because the rent was so durn cheap because no one wants to live there. and was only able to get out of the place because he received a small windfall and moved to a better city with better services. Not me. I know better.

My only quibbles is that unlike New Orleans or Baton Rouge, there is no public transit going to the suburb city cities. I hate driving. Soddy Daisy is pretty much a must-have-a-car place, although where I will be living at there is a shopping center I can ride my bicycle to and many businesses. I refuse to live places without a close by store. But, that is workable. The other quibble is that TN is, like Louisiana, Alabama, or Mississippi a conservative hell where screw poor folks, everything fun illegal, etc but that can be mitigated (somewhat) by living near or in major cities even in the south.

With the cheap cost of living and the deal I am getting, I will only have to work part time and still make enough.

That means I can do creative stuff I have always wanted to do, but obligations and life refused to let me. (hopefully)

But yeah. Losing everything sucks. Especially repeatedly.

There comes a point where the old saying, "Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity" starts to ring true. Even though, moving itself is stressful and it sucks moving away from networks of friends and the stuff you know versus unknowns that may be great or even worse. Costs money and time, too. That's why people get stuck. But it never changes if you do not take those steps.

[Green1]

Do you already have a job there in the area, Green1?

No.

I recently quit my job in Baton Rouge. Our family had a windfall lately due to an inheritance. It is not enough to never have to work again, but after 5 years of fundraising for barely legal charities having heartburn, panic attacks, etc in very stressful environments, I am burnt.

But, I should be able to get work easily. We know folks out there.

We plan to use that to buy a house in a low cost of living area then do arts and crafts like my parents do. Maybe work part time.

With only property taxes and utilities, I should do okay.