Relevant forum thread
The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK 1 = 0, RISK 2 = 1, etc.
Formulas
Chance of success
target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 (if Cover Ops Center present at target base), limited in [-2, 0] interval
probe strength = probe morale / 2 + target negative PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = risk / probe strength
- If roll succeeds and there is HSAHunter-Seeker Algorithm - another 50-50 roll.
- If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll.
- If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes.
Chance of survival
target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
probe strength = probe morale + target negative PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
- If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes.
- If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
- If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.
Values
Chance of success
| Morale (enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base)
|
Strength value
|
RISK value
|
|---|
| 0 |
1 |
2 |
3
|
|---|
| Disciplined/Hardened (0+) |
2 |
1 |
1/2 |
|
|
| Disciplined/Hardened (-1), Veteran/Commando (0+) |
3 |
1 |
2/3 |
1/3 |
|
| Disciplined/Hardened (-2), Veteran/Commando (-1), Elite (0+) |
4 |
1 |
3/4 |
2/4 |
1/4
|
| Veteran/Commando (-2), Elite (-1) |
5 |
1 |
4/5 |
3/5 |
2/5
|
| Elite (-2) |
6 |
1 |
5/6 |
4/6 |
3/6
|
Chance of survival
| Morale (enemy PROBE)
|
Strength value
|
RISK value
|
|---|
| 0 |
1 |
2 |
3
|
|---|
| Disciplined (0+) |
2 |
1/2 |
|
|
|
| Disciplined (-1), Hardened (0+) |
3 |
2/3 |
1/3 |
|
|
| Disciplined (-2), Hardened (-1), Veteran (0+) |
4 |
3/4 |
2/4 |
1/4 |
|
| Hardened (-2), Veteran (-1), Commando (0+) |
5 |
4/5 |
3/5 |
2/5 |
1/5
|
| Veteran (-2), Commando (-1), Elite (0+) |
6 |
5/6 |
4/6 |
3/6 |
2/6
|
| Commando (-2), Elite (-1) |
7 |
6/7 |
5/7 |
4/7 |
3/7
|
| Elite (-2) |
8 |
7/8 |
6/8 |
5/8 |
4/8
|
