Probe Team Success Rate

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Relevant forum thread

The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK1 = 0, RISK2 = 1, etc.

Chance of success 

target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 (if Cover Ops Center present at target base), limited in [-2, 0] interval
probe strength = probe morale / 2 + target negative PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = risk / probe strength
  • If roll succeeds and there is HSAHunter-Seeker Algorithm - another 50-50 roll.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes.

Chance of survival 

target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
probe strength = probe morale + target negative PROBE effect
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
  • If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.
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