Difference between revisions of "Probe Team Success Rate"

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[http://alphacentauri2.info/index.php?topic=2761.0 Relevant forum thread]
 
[http://alphacentauri2.info/index.php?topic=2761.0 Relevant forum thread]
  
−
The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK1 = 0, RISK2 = 1, etc.
+
The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK 1 = 0, RISK 2 = 1, etc.
 +
 
 +
= Formulas =
  
 
== Chance of success ==
 
== Chance of success ==
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<pre>
 
<pre>
 
target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
 
target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
−
probe strength = probe morale + target negative PROBE effect
+
probe strength = probe morale + target negative PROBE effect + 1
 
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
 
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
 
</pre>
 
</pre>
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* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
 
* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
 
* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.
 
* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.
 +
 +
= Values =
 +
 +
== Chance of success ==
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! colspan="1" rowspan="2" | Morale (enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base)
 +
! colspan="1" rowspan="2" | Strength value
 +
! colspan="4" rowspan="1" | RISK value
 +
|-
 +
! 0 !! 1 !! 2 !! 3
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined/Hardened (0+) || 2 || 1 || 1/2 ||  ||
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined/Hardened (-1), Veteran/Commando (0+) || 3 || 1 || 2/3 || 1/3 ||
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined/Hardened (-2), Veteran/Commando (-1), Elite (0+) || 4 || 1 || 3/4 || 2/4 || 1/4
 +
|-
 +
| Veteran/Commando (-2), Elite (-1) || 5 || 1 || 4/5 || 3/5 || 2/5
 +
|-
 +
| Elite (-2) || 6 || 1 || 5/6 || 4/6 || 3/6
 +
|}
 +
 +
== Chance of survival ==
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! colspan="1" rowspan="2" | Morale (enemy PROBE)
 +
! colspan="1" rowspan="2" | Strength value
 +
! colspan="4" rowspan="1" | RISK value
 +
|-
 +
! 0 !! 1 !! 2 !! 3
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined (0+) || 2 || 1/2 ||  ||  ||
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined (-1), Hardened (0+) || 3 || 2/3 || 1/3 ||  ||
 +
|-
 +
| Disciplined (-2), Hardened (-1), Veteran (0+) || 4 || 3/4 || 2/4 || 1/4 ||
 +
|-
 +
| Hardened (-2), Veteran (-1), Commando (0+) || 5 || 4/5 || 3/5 || 2/5 || 1/5
 +
|-
 +
| Veteran (-2), Commando (-1), Elite (0+) || 6 || 5/6 || 4/6 || 3/6 || 2/6
 +
|-
 +
| Commando (-2), Elite (-1) || 7 || 6/7 || 5/7 || 4/7 || 3/7
 +
|-
 +
| Elite (-2) || 8 || 7/8 || 6/8 || 5/8 || 4/8
 +
|}

Revision as of 10:48, 29 October 2020

Relevant forum thread

The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK 1 = 0, RISK 2 = 1, etc.

Contents

Formulas

Chance of success 

target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 (if Cover Ops Center present at target base), limited in [-2, 0] interval
probe strength = probe morale / 2 + target negative PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = risk / probe strength
  • If roll succeeds and there is HSAHunter-Seeker Algorithm - another 50-50 roll.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes.

Chance of survival 

target negative PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
probe strength = probe morale + target negative PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
  • If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.

Values

Chance of success

Morale (enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base) Strength value RISK value
0 1 2 3
Disciplined/Hardened (0+) 2 1 1/2
Disciplined/Hardened (-1), Veteran/Commando (0+) 3 1 2/3 1/3
Disciplined/Hardened (-2), Veteran/Commando (-1), Elite (0+) 4 1 3/4 2/4 1/4
Veteran/Commando (-2), Elite (-1) 5 1 4/5 3/5 2/5
Elite (-2) 6 1 5/6 4/6 3/6

Chance of survival

Morale (enemy PROBE) Strength value RISK value
0 1 2 3
Disciplined (0+) 2 1/2
Disciplined (-1), Hardened (0+) 3 2/3 1/3
Disciplined (-2), Hardened (-1), Veteran (0+) 4 3/4 2/4 1/4
Hardened (-2), Veteran (-1), Commando (0+) 5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5
Veteran (-2), Commando (-1), Elite (0+) 6 5/6 4/6 3/6 2/6
Commando (-2), Elite (-1) 7 6/7 5/7 4/7 3/7
Elite (-2) 8 7/8 6/8 5/8 4/8
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