Difference between revisions of "Probe Team Success Rate"

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m (Notes)
m (Chance of success)
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= Tables =
 
= Tables =
  
== Chance of success ==
+
== Chance of action ==
  
 
target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0]
 
target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0]

Revision as of 12:08, 29 October 2020

Relevant forum thread

The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK 1 = 0, RISK 2 = 1, etc.

Contents

Formulas

Chance of action

target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 (if Cover Ops Center present at target base), limited by [-2, 0] interval
probe strength = probe morale / 2 - target PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = risk / probe strength
  • If roll succeeds and there is HSAHunter-Seeker Algorithm - another 50-50 roll. Apparently, this should happen only if probe is enhanced. Otherwise, it won't even be able to carry out an action.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll.
  • If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes.

Chance of survival

target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here
probe strength = probe morale - target PROBE effect + 1
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
  • If roll succeeds and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - it supposed to halve success chance as in "chance of action" above but I was lazy to track this branch.
  • If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
  • If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.

Tables

Chance of action

target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0]

target PROBE effect is subtracted from strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values

morale strength RISK value
0 1 2 3
Disciplined/Hardened 2 1 1/2
Veteran/Commando 3 1 2/3 1/3
Elite 4 1 3/4 2/4 1/4
5 1 4/5 3/5 2/5
6 1 5/6 4/6 3/6

Chance of survival

target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE, limited by [-2, 0]

target PROBE effect is subtracted from morale strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values

morale strength RISK value
0 1 2 3
Disciplined 2 1/2
Hardened 3 2/3 1/3
Veteran 4 3/4 2/4 1/4
Commando 5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5
Elite 6 5/6 4/6 3/6 2/6
7 6/7 5/7 4/7 3/7
8 7/8 6/8 5/8 4/8

Notes

Survival chance

Survival chance kicks in only after probe team successfully executes a mission. Otherwise, team is busted and eliminated right away.

Target PROBE effect

Target negative PROBE rating can add 0-2 to probe strength for the purpose of chance calculations. That's why both tables go two levels above Elite.

Covert Ops Center effect

Covert Ops Center reduces adds 2 to target PROBE rating for the purpose of target PROBE effect computation. Thus effectively nullifying -2 PROBE adverse effect and halving -3 PROBE effect. Doesn't help against -4 PROBE, though.

Own PROBE effect

Positive PROBE rating increases probe morale thus indirectly influencing chances.