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We all know how Harvey has devastated Texas and all.
Now we have Irma that is looking like it is going to:
- hit South Florida, around Homestead/Miami. -
- Pop back out to sea around Indian River/West Palm Beach Counties.
- Skirt the Coast all the way up to Savannah GA and head to the Carolina Hills.
I am in Orlando at this time and I know that BU is also going to have some effect from this, too.
As to the exact path, it all will depend in the point that it makes it's northerly turn on Saturday Evening. Turn sooner and will mostly stay in the Atlantic (and still hit somewhere in the Carolinas). Turn later and more of Florida is impacted as well as GA.
No matter what, it is a very major and dangerous storm and not to be taken lightly.
As of the noon report, it has lost a little of it's strength (both in winds and pressure), but is looking to be hitting South Florida very near to the Cat 4/5 borderline. It is expected to be Cat 3 when it is closest to me.
The only saving grace that we have with this monster is the fact that it is continuing to move very rapidly and shows no sign of slowing down at all. If it does a Harvey and lingers or even slows to 1/2 current speed, we would be screwed... But all of the models are fairly much in agreement as to speed and relative path.
Anyways, I have gas for car and should be in a safe place (very operative phrase) during the storm.
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I can't get worked up about it until it's closer and they know more, man. -You're in a state that's not over-blessed with a lot of square miles safe to ride it out, while I'm where we took a direct hit from Hugo and the power was out a few days and we were cutting up downed trees for a long time afterwards, and that was about it.
There's urban areas east and west of us in easy driving distance where it's crowded enough to have some people and buildings in flood plains, but this is not terrain conducive to a lot of that. We're highly unlikely to get worse than there's some serious cleanup needed in the yard, and I might not be online a few days. It'd take some Old Testament/end of the world stuff going down to get a real flood here on the family estate.
Momma says that Hugo being all that's worth mentioning in the 77 years she's been observing the local climate may be a clue.
None of which is to say that I don't have real concerns that in this post-Reagan climate, everyone within a few hundred miles of an ocean won't all be living in houses that look like Fred Flintstone's in another generation...
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The estimated track has shifted west and it looks to just pass west of Orlando as an estimated Cat 3. That would also put the fastest winds on our side due to the additive effect of the circulating and forward motion wind components. The track seems to be taking it also near Atlanta, much further west from the Carolina highlands.
The storm is still looking to be a Cat 4 at landfall, west of Homestead. The mountains of Cuba and Is of Hispaniola are shredding the outer zones and has sized it down some, but the pressure still is about the same as well as the wind speeds.
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*I was thinking this morning how a person in Miami or the Keys could fly or drive to Atlanta, and still get hit by Irma on a likely track today.
* Irma set a record for the longest duration of 185mph winds.
* With winds as high as 210mph, Irma has been compared to a tornado, 80 miles wide!
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I'm always amazed why people choose to live in areas where these things are fairly common.
I mean, sure, I'm supposed to be destroyed by earthquake at some point, but that's a once every 1000 years or something. Hurricanes and tornadoes hit every year.
I'm thinking Montana is the place for me more each day...
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I'm thinking Montana is the place for me more each day...
:announce: Saskatchewan! :whistle:
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It's horrible to reflect on what this will do to Miami, whether it recedes to a four or stays at a five or whatever. Either way, it's a direct hit on a heavily populated and low-lying coastal area. There's going to be a huge number of refugees.
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Model path projections have shifted from right up the middle of Florida to the gulf coast. Kind of a good news/bad news.
The good news is that it won't hit Miami directly, which is yet another major city barely above sea level in the New Orleans & Houston tradition. Mountainous Cuba has been taking more of the storm than the flat Bahamas, which probably saved lives from storm surge.
The bad news is that if it stays in the Gulf Stream and into the Gulf, it could gain strength, rather than weaken as it would over land. The counter-clockwise rotation could buzz-saw it's way up the gulf coast, doing a Sandy style surge along the way. It might be enough to crush roofs of one story homes, even when walls are concrete. Then there's the wind speed. That's one thing, but designing to withstand the wind is not the same as withstanding a palm trunk or a car hurled by it. Or the danger of a sheet of metal flying at full wind speed.
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No matter what, the size of the sustained Hurricane force winds is as wide as the state...
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Ya, looks like granny's house is going to take a direct hit - and she didn't weatherize it before she came up for the summer, and the kin all fled before there was a chance.... hope she has a place to winter at when this is over!
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You know, I am getting pretty sick and tired of natural disasters and hardships in general. I genuinely empathize with folks going through this.
I have had more than my share. I lived in New Orleans during Katrina... lost everything. Figured Baton Rouge would be okay, then got hit with all the flooding a while back. I am not including all the lesser stuff like stuff shutting down for evacuations or other drama unrelated like businesses going belly up, layoffs, rent gouging, low paying egotistical employers where you have to work ALL THE TIME just not to be homeless, etc.
Yeah, you may get a bit of FEMA money. But, that is nothing - even if you do get lucky and get a thousand USD or two - compared to losing time from work (even if it is just evacuating), having to find new work, constantly getting messed over through jacked up rents in these places, having to find new jobs, having to rebuy household stuff, etc.
I have had it. Being wiped out every few years keeps me from really getting ahead or having any peace of mind. The only people that get ahead on disasters are the big retailers who are national and losing a store or two is nothing compared to the sales when everyone needs to replace things, construction companies, and big charities that keep most of it for themselves.
Towards the end of the year, my family and I are probably moving to Soddy Daisy, TN after a scouting mission to make sure everything is on the up and up. It is a suburb town near Chattanooga, TN. Near mountains and all that. We are going to buy an inexpensive 3 BR house out there for around 30 K that is owned by fiends of my partner's family. Try getting something that cheap other than some boondocks place in somewhere no one wants to live with no jobs like Kansas. We ended up blessed with a little change to be able to do it, plus we know folks.
I feel bad for those stuck in this cycle. I was. It, combined with other things, is a major reason why I have a string of started but not finished dreams.
Yeah, there are disasters everywhere. But I can cope with the .0001 percent chance of a tornado or a fire better than a major clustermess every 5 years or so.
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Hmm. Chattanooga is no Mayberry - if you're close enough, you may not be giving up all the urban conveniences you've grown accustomed to.
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Do you already have a job there in the area, Green1?
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Hmm. Chattanooga is no Mayberry - if you're close enough, you may not be giving up all the urban conveniences you've grown accustomed to.
Precisely my reasoning.
Mayberry type places suck. The only people who live out in the stick towns are retired folks, folks getting checks, rich folks that own the few businesses out there or are related to those people, and folks stuck out there. Most people move from really small towns eventually unless there is something keeping them there. Not saying these people are bad, but if you are not one of them in small towns you will have a hard time and could get trapped.
I knew a guy who got tired of the drama in Baton Rouge. Dude had a stalker dad who cost him jobs, a crazy room mate, and other stuff I will not go into. He took his last bit of cash, moved to some blip on the map called Ogden, Kansas. What he found there were meth heads, everybody poor, people begging for the one 7 USD an hour job from the maybe 3 businesses, or retired folks out there because the rent was so durn cheap because no one wants to live there. and was only able to get out of the place because he received a small windfall and moved to a better city with better services. Not me. I know better.
My only quibbles is that unlike New Orleans or Baton Rouge, there is no public transit going to the suburb city cities. I hate driving. Soddy Daisy is pretty much a must-have-a-car place, although where I will be living at there is a shopping center I can ride my bicycle to and many businesses. I refuse to live places without a close by store. But, that is workable. The other quibble is that TN is, like Louisiana, Alabama, or Mississippi a conservative hell where screw poor folks, everything fun illegal, etc but that can be mitigated (somewhat) by living near or in major cities even in the south.
With the cheap cost of living and the deal I am getting, I will only have to work part time and still make enough.
That means I can do creative stuff I have always wanted to do, but obligations and life refused to let me. (hopefully)
But yeah. Losing everything sucks. Especially repeatedly.
There comes a point where the old saying, "Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity" starts to ring true. Even though, moving itself is stressful and it sucks moving away from networks of friends and the stuff you know versus unknowns that may be great or even worse. Costs money and time, too. That's why people get stuck. But it never changes if you do not take those steps.
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Do you already have a job there in the area, Green1?
No.
I recently quit my job in Baton Rouge. Our family had a windfall lately due to an inheritance. It is not enough to never have to work again, but after 5 years of fundraising for barely legal charities having heartburn, panic attacks, etc in very stressful environments, I am burnt.
But, I should be able to get work easily. We know folks out there.
We plan to use that to buy a house in a low cost of living area then do arts and crafts like my parents do. Maybe work part time.
With only property taxes and utilities, I should do okay.
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Hey Green, speaking of doing arts and crafts, check this: http://alphacentauri2.info/JKStudio/ (http://alphacentauri2.info/JKStudio/)
ISTR that you're originally Midwestern. Well, if they didn't think you talked funny in LA, they probably won't in east Tennessee - but Loozianna is its own place, culturally, not really part of "the south" any more than Florida is. A good deal of Tennessee is firmly worked up to the 20th century -I was saying that in the 20th century, and it amuses me to not bother to update the phrase- so don't go in with really low expectations of the locals. If you look for hillbillies and Klan rallies, I suppose you'll find them -Yankees tend to, 'cause they ARE looking- but I'd encourage you to keep an open mind, doing otherwise inevitably showing and not making you any friends. Don't be like a Yankee, and see inferiority when you're actually just seeing difference.
That's on the other side of the ridge from here, you know - a few hours' drive...
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Hey Green, speaking of doing arts and crafts, check this: http://alphacentauri2.info/JKStudio/ (http://alphacentauri2.info/JKStudio/)
ISTR that you're originally Midwestern. Well, if they didn't think you talked funny in LA, they probably won't in east Tennessee - but Loozianna is its own place, culturally, not really part of "the south" any more than Florida is. A good deal of Tennessee is firmly worked up to the 20th century -I was saying that in the 20th century, and it amuses me to not bother to update the phrase- so don't go in with really low expectations of the locals. If you look for hillbillies and Klan rallies, I suppose you'll find them -Yankees tend to, 'cause they ARE looking- but I'd encourage you to keep an open mind, doing otherwise inevitably showing and not making you any friends. Don't be like a Yankee, and see inferiority when you're actually just seeing difference.
That's on the other side of the ridge from here, you know - a few hours' drive...
I am originally from Mississippi. I did live in Phoenix, AZ for a short stint, but have been here for most my life.
But yeah, open mind is needed when moving anywhere.
EDIT: Who knows, if I do go, I may go on a scouting mission to see the BU compound one day.
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That's on the other side of the ridge from here, you know - a few hours' drive...
It's freezing cold up there on the ridge!!! :stickpoke:
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Geo visited in February. It was indeed colder than a witch's obscenity up at the closest part of the eastern continental divide the day we drove up there, but he'll grant that it was remarkably temperate downhill here in America, if a somewhat wet week. He missed the sleet a week later, and Buster Herownself.
E_T, I want to introduce you to my man Green1 - I've always seen the two of you as similar personalities, being crazed drunks, I guess, in the non-southern southern states but great guys I can call something that rude to your faces and it's cool. Y'all make each other's acquaintance, hear?
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Geo visited in February. It was indeed colder than a witch's obscenity up at the closest part of the eastern continental divide the day we drove up there, but he'll grant that it was remarkably temperate downhill here in America, if a somewhat wet week. He missed the sleet a week later, and Buster Herownself.
E_T, I want to introduce you to my man Green1 - I've always seen the two of you as similar personalities, being crazed drunks, I guess, in the non-southern southern states but great guys I can call something that rude to your faces and it's cool. Y'all make each other's acquaintance, hear?
NOT calling a former denizen of New Orleans a crazed drunk is an insult, not the other way around.
Anyone that gets so easily offended are no fun to be around.
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Everybody loves a good sport, it's true.
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I'll admit that small towns limit your opportunities for careers, spouses, culture and entertainment.
On the other hand, if there's going to be a disaster, regional or personal, I'd rather it happened to me in a small interconnected community. You don't know everybody's names, but you know them from shopping at the same store on the same evening, or the vehicle they drive, or the home they live in, or the church they go to, or their friends, relatives, etc. Nobody can escape their reputation, so they do the best that they can. The social fabric doesn't tear when the government fails. There are no riots. Only neighbors.
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Geo visited in February. It was indeed colder than a witch's obscenity up at the closest part of the eastern continental divide the day we drove up there, but he'll grant that it was remarkably temperate downhill here in America, if a somewhat wet week. He missed the sleet a week later, and Buster Herownself.
E_T, I want to introduce you to my man Green1 - I've always seen the two of you as similar personalities, being crazed drunks, I guess, in the non-southern southern states but great guys I can call something that rude to your faces and it's cool. Y'all make each other's acquaintance, hear?
Excuse me, I am NOT a crazed (or any other kind of) drunk. Nor do I really appreciate the implication that I am.
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I'll admit that small towns limit your opportunities for careers, spouses, culture and entertainment.
On the other hand, if there's going to be a disaster, regional or personal, I'd rather it happened to me in a small interconnected community. You don't know everybody's names, but you know them from shopping at the same store on the same evening, or the vehicle they drive, or the home they live in, or the church they go to, or their friends, relatives, etc. Nobody can escape their reputation, so they do the best that they can. The social fabric doesn't tear when the government fails. There are no riots. Only neighbors.
As far as regional disasters, I agree with you on only one thing. The closeness and at least fake caring. It was not the hurricane that messed me over as much on one thing, but a landlord when I lost my stuff in New Orleans. My place survived and I was there until they came with M16s to drag me out because Rita was coming against my will. I could not get back in time, the landlord was under pressure to rent out to FEMA workers for twice what I was paying, wheeled up with a trailer and took everything of value and threw the rest of the stuff on the curb. While there are jerks in small towns, too, I doubt that would have happened if I lived in a small city. The callousness of living in the rat race can make you lonely at times even in a place with millions of people. Big city seems to be "handle your business, we will handle ours unless you offer something. If you cease to offer something f -you" kind of vibe at times. But, there are great people and neighbors in cities, too. It is what you make it and you can not really be isolated, complacent, or stop evolving. A good and bad thing.
But, as far as personal disasters I disagree with you. Personal disasters can be made WORSE by being in a small town due to lack of opportunities.
Small city is less likely to have somewhere to sofa surf and the community may indeed "shun" you as something must be "wrong" with you even if the bad luck has nothing to do with your lack of responsibility or character. News travels fast of folks having issues, particularly if you are different. Even most churches behave like this unless you are a longtime, connected member and consistent tither or someone they can use to "show" how charitable they are and draw in new tithers. Jesus, Buddha, Krishna, Allah, Tom Cruise, or whatever at the end of the day churches are non profit businesses. Heck, even though homeless shelters suck and are borderline abusive, at least even the medium sized towns have one worse come to worse. Not to mention, in a small town the cops are bored from lack of crime and can turn on you.
Divorce? Good luck. Unless you are young you have either crazy cat hoarder lady, barfly on her 5th husband that spends her crazy check at the one watering hole in town everyone has slept with, or psycho church lady never married who is frigid as hell and does not like men anyways. That is, even if the town has that. Get used to Okay Cupid of Plenty of fish and be willing to make 2 hour road trips.
Jobs? Unless you work for maybe the one or two big places out there, good luck working at Mickey Ds or Dollar General who will not even pay you enough to pay rent better than some shack or sharing a trailer with 4 folks and will not even hire you unless you are of a completely subservient nature and want the world from you. I knew folks from the oil field crash in little small podunk towns in Arcadian Country Louisiana. The ones who did not lose their house when the unemployment ran out had to take jobs in frozen North Dakota away from their family for months and could not sell the house because no jobs there and they would take a loss selling or renting it because no real jobs.
No car? Car now scrap and not enough cash or credit to buy another? Slit your wrists now or you had better dodge cars and learn to bicycle touring cyclist level since the nearest workplace maybe 20 miles of rural highway. Or move.
Yes, I will take "near suburbs and major cities" any day. Unless I had no choice or was offered a hell of a deal.
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Excuse me, I am NOT a crazed (or any other kind of) drunk. Nor do I really appreciate the implication that I am.
Okay, sorry, I thought I discerned the occasional post under the influence, and was speaking the way I customarily tease Green, not intended to be taken seriously.
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I'll admit that small towns limit your opportunities for careers, spouses, culture and entertainment.
On the other hand, if there's going to be a disaster, regional or personal, I'd rather it happened to me in a small interconnected community. You don't know everybody's names, but you know them from shopping at the same store on the same evening, or the vehicle they drive, or the home they live in, or the church they go to, or their friends, relatives, etc. Nobody can escape their reputation, so they do the best that they can. The social fabric doesn't tear when the government fails. There are no riots. Only neighbors.
As far as regional disasters, I agree with you on only one thing. The closeness and at least fake caring. It was not the hurricane that messed me over as much on one thing, but a landlord when I lost my stuff in New Orleans. My place survived and I was there until they came with M16s to drag me out because Rita was coming against my will. I could not get back in time, the landlord was under pressure to rent out to FEMA workers for twice what I was paying, wheeled up with a trailer and took everything of value and threw the rest of the stuff on the curb. While there are jerks in small towns, too, I doubt that would have happened if I lived in a small city. The callousness of living in the rat race can make you lonely at times even in a place with millions of people. Big city seems to be "handle your business, we will handle ours unless you offer something. If you cease to offer something f -you" kind of vibe at times. But, there are great people and neighbors in cities, too. It is what you make it and you can not really be isolated, complacent, or stop evolving. A good and bad thing.
But, as far as personal disasters I disagree with you. Personal disasters can be made WORSE by being in a small town due to lack of opportunities.
Small city is less likely to have somewhere to sofa surf and the community may indeed "shun" you as something must be "wrong" with you even if the bad luck has nothing to do with your lack of responsibility or character. News travels fast of folks having issues, particularly if you are different. Even most churches behave like this unless you are a longtime, connected member and consistent tither or someone they can use to "show" how charitable they are and draw in new tithers. Jesus, Buddha, Krishna, Allah, Tom Cruise, or whatever at the end of the day churches are non profit businesses. Heck, even though homeless shelters suck and are borderline abusive, at least even the medium sized towns have one worse come to worse. Not to mention, in a small town the cops are bored from lack of crime and can turn on you.
Divorce? Good luck. Unless you are young you have either crazy cat hoarder lady, barfly on her 5th husband that spends her crazy check at the one watering hole in town everyone has slept with, or psycho church lady never married who is frigid as hell and does not like men anyways. That is, even if the town has that. Get used to Okay Cupid of Plenty of fish and be willing to make 2 hour road trips.
Jobs? Unless you work for maybe the one or two big places out there, good luck working at Mickey Ds or Dollar General who will not even pay you enough to pay rent better than some shack or sharing a trailer with 4 folks and will not even hire you unless you are of a completely subservient nature and want the world from you. I knew folks from the oil field crash in little small podunk towns in Arcadian Country Louisiana. The ones who did not lose their house when the unemployment ran out had to take jobs in frozen North Dakota away from their family for months and could not sell the house because no jobs there and they would take a loss selling or renting it because no real jobs.
No car? Car now scrap and not enough cash or credit to buy another? Slit your wrists now or you had better dodge cars and learn to bicycle touring cyclist level since the nearest workplace maybe 20 miles of rural highway. Or move.
Yes, I will take "near suburbs and major cities" any day. Unless I had no choice or was offered a hell of a deal.
You impression of small towns does not line up with my experience - and best be choosy about who you confide that opinion with in the new place.
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Geo visited in February. It was indeed colder than a witch's obscenity up at the closest part of the eastern continental divide the day we drove up there, but he'll grant that it was remarkably temperate downhill here in America, if a somewhat wet week. He missed the sleet a week later, and Buster Herownself.
E_T, I want to introduce you to my man Green1 - I've always seen the two of you as similar personalities, being crazed drunks, I guess, in the non-southern southern states but great guys I can call something that rude to your faces and it's cool. Y'all make each other's acquaintance, hear?
Excuse me, I am NOT a crazed (or any other kind of) drunk. Nor do I really appreciate the implication that I am.
That's okay.
Not every one is perfect.
But, I am sure if you apply yourself you can be a crazed drunk, too. If anything it loosens me up and makes me write better as long as I am not trashed.
Back in the vanilla WOW craze, I was an officer of an also-ran major raid guild of about 300 members at it's hey day on a backwater RPPvP server. (Yeah, I know. No life and a ton of unwarranted self importance for the win)
I had a bit too, too much of cheap beer while perusing the guild forums. I am not sure wht happened next, but I got kind of tinkled at the whole silliness of all the personalities and pettiness of it all. I ended up using colorful language and making a fool of myself.
It was epic. Ended up making folks mad, and if I was sober, I would have been more... shall we say... diplomatic as what I said was true. It would have also been too lame. That is what the POWER™ of booze can do. These people needed to be brought out of their uptight grind smugness over purple pixels that is now irrelevant almost a decade later.
Of course, unleashing this sleeping giant of awesomesauce is up to you... Unleash and embrace. Just be sure to show up for work or you will start having to sell plasma for your beer and will have to settle for Bush instead of Guinness. Tragic. Also, if booze makes you miss work, sprout handcuffs and car wrecks, and holes in your walls and romantic partners you may wish to imbibe in other things.
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Everybody loves a good sport, it's true.
:stickpoke: Watch out for the tree trunk!
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I don't get it.
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You impression of small towns does not line up with my experience - and best be choosy about who you confide that opinion with in the new place.
Maybe.
But, when you are not a kind of place, all you hear of is what you have heard firsthand. Soddy Daisy seems to be more like Clinton, MS is to Jackson, MS. Chalmette, LA as opposed to New Orleans, LA. Tempe AZ is to Phoenix AZ. It's not like being some place like Iowa, LA or Weed, CA or Parump, NV.
But, I agree. There is a certain deal with city life that makes one almost dismissive to small towns.
I was expressing my turn off towards the isolation of those areas and horror stories I have heard from folks who went places and returned shaken.
But back on thread..
Florida is fixing to get wrecked. A lot of people are fixing to get FEMA money. A lot of charities are going to get rich. Construction jobs for days. Some will be homeless, though or have to move away for good never seeing their friends again. Kind of sad.
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Excuse me, I am NOT a crazed (or any other kind of) drunk. Nor do I really appreciate the implication that I am.
Okay, sorry, I thought I discerned the occasional post under the influence, and was speaking the way I customarily tease Green, not intended to be taken seriously.
In the last two years, I have averaged 1 beer per year...Dude...
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Not apologizing twice ...Dude...
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After following the coast of Cuba, taking the storm to Cat 3, it has finally started the turn towards the North. The storm is also experiencing some shearing winds that are spreading the upper storm out and helping to keep it from regaining strength in the Gulf Stream. But this is still a very large and monstrous storm.
It is about 95 miles south of Key West and the outer Feeder Band is starting to lash the Space Coast in Brevard (sp) County (where the Space Center is located). Part of the reason that the bands are hitting now and not when it is closer is due to the effects from the shearing winds.
The Storm is looking more and more to hit Key West and then scrap the West coast or make landfall between Tampa and Port Charlotte, reenter the Gulf around Tarpon Springs and then make final landfall in the Big Bend area of the State, moving into as far as Chattanooga before losing it's "tropical" status.
In spite of the westward track of the storm in relation to the state, they are still expecting around 3+ feet of Storm Surge and violent surf conditions on the east coast. There is also expected to be possible significant beach erosion from the effects of this massive storm.
Already, Central Florida Counties are getting tornado warnings from the approaching feeder bands. That as well as the squally gusts are what will cause most of the damage that the area will face in the next 48 hours+.
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I don't get it.
Someone banged his head to an overhanging tree trunk on a path? Let Mylochka be my witness. ;)
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You will have noticed that God didn't make me tiny and slender, or very graceful; I'm so used to bumping into stuff -and I have an unusually high pain threshold- that it tends to take a shot to the face to even get my full conscious attention that I bumped into something. Life's too short to give the leg scratches and such any regard until I can sit down and treat them. -That was coming back uphill in the gorge, wasn't it?
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Local weather report, mostly irrelevant to the topic: 62 degrees now, and the sky is a bit high-level overcast, though it was sunny this morning, and all day today the air is tree-top stirring restless, which is making the cats a little twitchy. I'm not paying close attention to the weather reports yet, and assume this is weather that would be further south if Irma wasn't pushing stuff off-course. Pretty typical of a hurricane coming in vaguely this direction before the outer edges have even reached here, an unusual sky and/or clouds going the wrong way... -And it's actually trying to transition to autumn already this year, very unlike last year, but that's been going on for nearly two weeks; no Irma need apply.
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The hurricane season represents the ideal opportunity for the population to comprehend the importance of the socialist based community activist groups in the reconstruction of the impoverished and downtrodden elements of American society through the expansion of class consciousness in the population.
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Bearu, the pseudo-Marx politics is beyond old. I asked you to cool it in the past and explained a good reason - you have not cooled it. I'm fixing to put my hat on if you can't talk about anything else or think of anything original to say about that. Jarlwolf is an actual communist holdover from the Soviet Union, and he was interesting to talk politics with - and I wish he were still around, 'cause I 'spect he'd set you straight, and fast. (Also because he's great.)
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Irma seems to be maintaining steady forward motion at 14mph. While there were some ominous cases of bays being temporarily blown dry on the front side, the storm is weakening over land. It's a category II now. The wind speeds are down to 105mph sustained, and aren't able to push and hold the double digit surges they predicted on the back side, which should save lives and property on the gulf coast.
So it's a good thing, danger is diminishing, so that it's more like previous hurricanes to cross the state.
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Yes. I was watching some weather this evening, and am feeling somewhat relieved. There's nothing good about this thing, but at least it isn't looking as extraordinary as had been widely feared.
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It has broken many records and continues to surprise the 30 plus year metorologist on WFTV, Tom Terry. Had a tornado field that was moving at 95mph and difficult to keep up with...
Hurricane Donna 57 year aniversery that landfell at same time and place as Irma later did...
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Irma's around 75mph now. Still got my first day of work canceled--they'll be closing local bridges if sustained winds top 40 today--but nothing to worry about up here in the panhandle.
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I don't watch news at home.
So, when I left work, Irma was going to absolutely level Miami, anything over 20 stories was in danger of being toppled in the wind, and the entire state of Florida was supposed to move inland.
I take it the buildings didn't topple. Also looks like it landed significantly west of predictions Friday.
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See, that's why I was grousing a week ago IRL about it being too soon to be stirring up fears on TV -aside from, I'll grant, in Florida, which almost always gets at least some bad weather no matter what these storms do- it is not possible to KNOW enough to know whether to be concerned a week out. The mass media is really bad about --- every time there's a thunder storm in this half of North Carolina, there's a red banner at the bottom of the TV screen and the TV screams twice a minute. It's crying wolf, and it does more harm than good.
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I see on TV -and there's no screaming, thank goodness- that America is now inside the outer edge of Irma. There's a steady high-level overcast -the clouds are white and featureless- and some sporadic drizzling so far. The cats seemed more nervous yesterday. I still hope Irma will warm things back up a little, but no dice so far...
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There were multiple models, and some were more accurate than others. I think the real issue is that when you need to figure out both whether to leave and where to go, you probably need more than 48 hours of reliable prediction.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement/?utm_term=.e778d50f77d2 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement/?utm_term=.e778d50f77d2)
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To be clear -and accurately nuanced- I never heard a single syllable of speculation that, in isolation, struck me as inappropriate. It is just the failure of the mass media group mind as a whole to get Harvey flooding out of their head and recognize that last Monday was WAY TOO SOON for (the lovely) Ingrid Allstaedt of WLOS in Asheville NC to be devoting the bulk of the weather forecast -and an unusual percentage of the Noon News- to talking about the next hurricane, a low probability-event locally to come here and amount to much. It was that way on every channel that has any news and/or weather. It was too soon even for the gulf coast states, before the thing got closer. Getting people ginned up before you know enough to have anything intelligent to say is irresponsible and wrong, and a major reason people don't listen when danger turns out to be real. Cry Wolf.
Again, I exempt local TV in Florida, and also The Weather Channel to a lesser extent, because talking about weather is all they're supposed to do, so they have little choice but to go overboard. National news shows, and local outside Florida, that cover weather could have at least confined it to regularly-scheduled weather segments.
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Moses came to my window to be let in from the hurricane about an hour ago - it hasn't intensified or changed worth mentioning since my earlier report, but there was none of the customary faffing around deciding whether he wanted to come inside or just wanted a little petting. He ran straight downhill and straight inside. He is lounging in the chair beside the table of masks, which have had no further paining done, BTW.
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Didn't want to say hi to Irma?
Do you know the windspeed?
Today, autumn weather surged in at a paltry 3-4 beaufort. Surges to 60-70 kmp on the coast.
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Didn't want to say hi to Irma?
Do you know the windspeed?
Today, autumn weather surged in at a paltry 3-4 beaufort. Surges to 60-70 kmp on the coast.
50 m.p.h. ( 80 Km/hr ? )
sustained winds on the Weather Channel right now , so marginally a gale.
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Mom suggested I take care of the cats' supper over an hour early, and I knew a good idea when I heard it. Had I had no way of knowing about Irma, I would have thought there was a thunderstorm nearby trying to work up - the drizzle wasn't steady, and drizzle doesn't go with treetop-stirring restless air around here, yet not seem to be blowing at ground level at all. I DO know about Irma, though, and she ain't just Elok's tiny Gramma, and this ain't my first rodeo. We look to be going to get a loong thunderstorm sort of night. I got Moses -easy- Goblin -Kept stopping on her way, but never any doubt- and Cloud -who took a bowl of catfood and about a half hour of patient luring- all in the basement, just to spare them an unpleasant/scary night. Hershey was never a possibility; he didn't even show for supper, presumably doing what he always does in weather that makes him nervous - hole up somewhere early, and not come out 'til the scary stuff is completely quiet on cat frequencies.
While I was coaxing Cloud, I looked straight up and the sky was bizarre. There were wispy clouds that looked to be only 200 feet or so up, back lit by the high overcast twilight sky, moving at a tremendous clip straight west. That's a new one by me. It seemed to definitely be transitioning to more serious weather from 6:18 to about an hour later, when I finally got Cloud inside and the basement door closed at the same time. It's just an overnight, so I'm going to indulge the cats and try to keep food in the bowl until my bedtime.
It ain't gonna be fit for man or Hershey outside 'bout 2A.M., but I doubt we'll be inconvenienced worth mentioning, and I understand the peak'll be long gone by sunrise...
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From what I am hearing from FL kin, the most damage was done by the various tornadoes that may not have even touched down in an area, but that did pick up and fling lots of debris.
Lots of trees down. Localized areas of significant structural damage, but not widespread. Sucks bad if you are in that location, however. Power outages are supposed to be the biggest hazard now, as a downed line will still zap someone good and dead.
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Raining moderately ATM, little wind to speak of. Goblin -I think it was Goblin- ate so much she puked on the stairs -I think it was puke- and now seems to want to spend the night in my bedroom, but I left the litter pan in the workroom where Cloud can use it, and I'm not going to carry the puker into my room if she doesn't make it in there on her own, which she rarely does at bedtime.
Power loss tomorrow isn't a pathetically low-probability outcome, but if I'm not around, we have three different alternative ways to cook and a small generator to keep the fridge going. I'll be fine, and see you when I see you. Peace out, y'all!
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To be clear -and accurately nuanced- I never heard a single syllable of speculation that, in isolation, struck me as inappropriate. It is just the failure of the mass media group mind as a whole to get Harvey flooding out of their head and recognize that last Monday was WAY TOO SOON for (the lovely) Ingrid Allstaedt of WLOS in Asheville NC to be devoting the bulk of the weather forecast -and an unusual percentage of the Noon News- to talking about the next hurricane, a low probability-event locally to come here and amount to much. It was that way on every channel that has any news and/or weather. It was too soon even for the gulf coast states, before the thing got closer. Getting people ginned up before you know enough to have anything intelligent to say is irresponsible and wrong, and a major reason people don't listen when danger turns out to be real. Cry Wolf.
Again, I exempt local TV in Florida, and also The Weather Channel to a lesser extent, because talking about weather is all they're supposed to do, so they have little choice but to go overboard. National news shows, and local outside Florida, that cover weather could have at least confined it to regularly-scheduled weather segments.
I could never stomach TWC, esp when it comes to tropical events that could impact me.
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Raining moderately ATM, little wind to speak of. Goblin -I think it was Goblin- ate so much she puked on the stairs -I think it was puke- and now seems to want to spend the night in my bedroom, but I left the litter pan in the workroom where Cloud can use it, and I'm not going to carry the puker into my room if she doesn't make it in there on her own, which she rarely does at bedtime.
Power loss tomorrow isn't a pathetically low-probability outcome, but if I'm not around, we have three different alternative ways to cook and a small generator to keep the fridge going. I'll be fine, and see you when I see you. Peace out, y'all!
Cat puking at times might be signs of hairball problems... there is stuff in tube, basically codliver paste (instead of oil) with mild laxatives. Put a dab on forpaw weekly (IIRC) and your golden....
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One of my sisters in the Mt. Dora area said the eye passed over. Trees down and power out, called to say she was safe before her cell ran out.
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There's a lot of leaves on the ground this morning. The trees started shedding a little while it was still August, and this would otherwise look like we'd had a windy night, barely worthy of remark.
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The cats have no way to know it's on the downside of this weather, probably to stay, and after spending the morning outside -besides Moses, who came to my window as soon as I sat down- wanted to come back inside after lunch, and did. Hershey is fine, has never been indoors and didn't want to now, but doesn't seem unusually twitchy today.
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It's a normal sort of day today, which isn't that different than Monday and yesterday, just less wind and no drizzle so far. It was actually sunny this morning, but the clouds have thickened now, which is all very typical of the weather pattern going on for over a month.
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On an extremely insensitive note, I am grateful to Irma for REALLY overshadowing that Monday was Still-Dead Day. The group mind's sick obsession with the thing that happened in New York was considerably muted, and polluted the science news headlines substantially less than one assumes it would have otherwise. I was actually able to watch the TV news on the 11th without a great deal of irritation, which was probably the first time in 16 years of that date.
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Only four more until the big 20, with the huge 25th only five more beyond... So plenty to look forward too...
Although, I'm also glad of the lack of deadhorse beating.....
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One of my sisters in the Mt. Dora area said the eye passed over. Trees down and power out, called to say she was safe before her cell ran out.
Ask her if the lack of wind and rain as eary or not...and how long until the winds picked back up from other direction? Tell her that if she had gone outside at that time and that she could have seen the moon and stars...
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One of my sisters in the Mt. Dora area said the eye passed over. Trees down and power out, called to say she was safe before her cell ran out.
Ask her if the lack of wind and rain as eary or not...and how long until the winds picked back up from other direction? Tell her that if she had gone outside at that time and that she could have seen the moon and stars...
I didn't speak with this sister directly, I seldom do. Simply put, she is less honest than the people I retain in my life. Her college age children have the same issue with her. Even so, I try to stay on good terms because we have aging parents to consider. We just don't normally visit or talk unless it's at a hospital, or Mother's day when we're in the same state or something.
My mother did say that my sister used a peculiar word to describe the eye, but my Mom couldn't remember which one.
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My mother did say that my sister used a peculiar word to describe the eye, but my Mom couldn't remember which one.
Slanted? ;)
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wide-eyed
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Cat-like...
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Hey Green - it strikes me that if anything goes pear-shaped enough about the Chattanooga plan to ruin it, you might want to look into the Asheville area. Lots of hippies and microbreweries...
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Hey Green - it strikes me that if anything goes pear-shaped enough about the Chattanooga plan to ruin it, you might want to look into the Asheville area. Lots of hippies and microbreweries...
Well, the scouting mission is next week.
Only reason that area was selected is because there is we have an inside track on a pretty sweet deal.
My stepson's wife's mother inherited a few former rental houses in a decent area and is willing to let one go for cheapish. It needs a bit of work. A former renter ripped out the bathtub in the master bedroom to start. I am sure there are other issues. Work we are willing to deal with for the price.
However, if it looks a lot worse than what we have been led to believe - say roof falling in or foundation stuff - deal is off.
I do not think that is the case, though. the lady just wants the cash and does not want to have to deal with property taxes, renters, etc.
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Hmm. Trenacker is in East Tennessee -I think that precise part, I'm not sure, and is an RP gamer- you might ought to make his acquaintance if the move comes off.
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Puerto Rico Update- it's been over 9 weeks.
On Thanksgiving:
•48.6% are without power
•33.7% of cell sites are down
•10.3% do not have access to drinkable water
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Ya. If they would have either gone for statehood, or gone for independance, I doubt it would be that FUBAR. But they have enjoyed playing the political game for decades and have had many of the local politicians put money towards votes, not infrastructure, and this is the results. Personally, although I hate the suffering, I hope they wake up and get off the fence and that this proves to be the wake up call. I would love for PR to be the 51'st state!
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I was watching a John Oliver show on Puerto Rico...
Seems like some investors got a hold on the legislature and put stuff in their constitution where the territory must constantly be in debt for questionable returns. It's so bad there is no money for anything for the actual citizens. Seems even the worst run state would have never agreed to it.
Most of the problems in PR seem that a few elite that many do not even live there have screwed over the population for an upper class lifestyle, intentional or not.
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70 days after Maria
Status.pr reports:
*62% power generation (generation doesn’t mean consumption; the govt doesn’t provide that number)
*92% of people have water (boil advisory in effect)
*1,028 survivors remain in the 42 shelters that are still open
I always find it much easier to boil water when I have electricity. They Puerto Rican people voted for statehood earlier this year, but don't expect a GOP Congress to vote to approve a likely blue state with a larger population than many red states.
Meanwhile, there's a constant stream of Puerto Ricans relocating to central Florida. Probably enough to turn that purple state blue. I hope ET can give us a report on that when he drops by.
I can't blame them. I love my electricity. Most businesses here would be hard pressed to do without it. Tourism is their number one source of income, and they were already struggling with the Zika outbreak. They've got to be having a cash flow crisis.
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I have always seen Hispanics vote (and think) fairly conservatively... But under the current political Circumstances to the disaster...
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