Difference between revisions of "Probe Team Success Rate"
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= Formulas = | = Formulas = | ||
| − | == Chance of | + | == Chance of action == |
<pre> | <pre> | ||
| − | target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 | + | target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 if Cover Ops Center present at target base, limited by [-2, 0] interval |
probe strength = probe morale / 2 - target PROBE effect + 1 | probe strength = probe morale / 2 - target PROBE effect + 1 | ||
chance of failure = risk / probe strength | chance of failure = risk / probe strength | ||
</pre> | </pre> | ||
| − | * If roll succeeds and there is HSA - another 50-50 roll. | + | * If roll succeeds and there is HSA - another 50-50 roll. Apparently, this should happen only if probe is enhanced. Otherwise, it won't even be able to carry out an action. |
* If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll. | * If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll. | ||
| − | * If roll fails and probe | + | * If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes. |
== Chance of survival == | == Chance of survival == | ||
<pre> | <pre> | ||
| − | target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here | + | target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 if Cover Ops Center present at target base, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here |
probe strength = probe morale - target PROBE effect + 1 | probe strength = probe morale - target PROBE effect + 1 | ||
chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength | chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength | ||
</pre> | </pre> | ||
| + | * If roll succeeds and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - it supposed to halve success chance as in "chance of action" above but I was lazy to track this branch. | ||
* If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes. | * If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes. | ||
* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes. | * If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes. | ||
* If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll. | * If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll. | ||
| − | = | + | = Tables = |
| − | == Chance of | + | == Chance of action == |
target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0] | target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0] | ||
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== Chance of survival == | == Chance of survival == | ||
| − | target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE, limited by [-2, 0] | + | target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0] |
target PROBE effect is subtracted from morale strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values | target PROBE effect is subtracted from morale strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values | ||
| Line 86: | Line 87: | ||
= Notes = | = Notes = | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Survival chance == | ||
| + | |||
| + | Survival chance kicks in only after probe team successfully executes a mission. Otherwise, team is busted and eliminated right away. | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Target PROBE effect == | ||
Target negative PROBE rating can add 0-2 to probe strength for the purpose of chance calculations. That's why both tables go two levels above Elite. | Target negative PROBE rating can add 0-2 to probe strength for the purpose of chance calculations. That's why both tables go two levels above Elite. | ||
| − | Covert Ops Center | + | == Covert Ops Center effect == |
| + | |||
| + | Covert Ops Center reduces adds 2 to target PROBE rating for the purpose of target PROBE effect computation. Thus effectively nullifying -2 PROBE adverse effect and halving -3 PROBE effect. Doesn't help against -4 PROBE, though. | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Own PROBE effect == | ||
| + | |||
| + | Positive PROBE rating increases probe morale thus indirectly influencing chances. | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Algorithmic enhancement and HSA effects == | ||
| + | |||
| + | Other research suggested that Algorithmic enhancement halves failure chance. Whereas Algorithmic enhancement against HSA case halves success chance. | ||
| − | + | My research supports that statement partially but I was lazy to track all branches for survival chance. | |
Latest revision as of 21:23, 29 October 2020
The thread above correctly lists all risks. The risks in the thread correspond values in code like this: RISK 1 = 0, RISK 2 = 1, etc.
Contents |
Formulas
Chance of action
target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 if Cover Ops Center present at target base, limited by [-2, 0] interval probe strength = probe morale / 2 - target PROBE effect + 1 chance of failure = risk / probe strength
- If roll succeeds and there is HSAHunter-Seeker Algorithm - another 50-50 roll. Apparently, this should happen only if probe is enhanced. Otherwise, it won't even be able to carry out an action.
- If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is no HSA - another 50-50 roll.
- If roll fails and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - no changes.
Chance of survival
target PROBE effect = target PROBE rating + 2 if Cover Ops Center present at target base, limited in [-2, 0] interval - not sure if if Cover Ops Center plays any role here probe strength = probe morale - target PROBE effect + 1 chance of failure = (risk + 1) / probe strength
- If roll succeeds and probe is enhanced and there is HSA - it supposed to halve success chance as in "chance of action" above but I was lazy to track this branch.
- If roll fails and there is HSA - no changes.
- If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is not enhanced - no changes.
- If roll fails and there is no HSA and probe is enhanced - another 50-50 roll.
Tables
Chance of action
target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0]
target PROBE effect is subtracted from strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values
| morale | strength | RISK value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Disciplined/Hardened | 2 | 1 | 1/2 | ||
| Veteran/Commando | 3 | 1 | 2/3 | 1/3 | |
| Elite | 4 | 1 | 3/4 | 2/4 | 1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | 4/5 | 3/5 | 2/5 | |
| 6 | 1 | 5/6 | 4/6 | 3/6 | |
Chance of survival
target PROBE effect = enemy PROBE + 2 if COC in base, limited by [-2, 0]
target PROBE effect is subtracted from morale strength in table below essentially making acting probe stronger for negative values
| morale | strength | RISK value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Disciplined | 2 | 1/2 | |||
| Hardened | 3 | 2/3 | 1/3 | ||
| Veteran | 4 | 3/4 | 2/4 | 1/4 | |
| Commando | 5 | 4/5 | 3/5 | 2/5 | 1/5 |
| Elite | 6 | 5/6 | 4/6 | 3/6 | 2/6 |
| 7 | 6/7 | 5/7 | 4/7 | 3/7 | |
| 8 | 7/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 4/8 | |
Notes
Survival chance
Survival chance kicks in only after probe team successfully executes a mission. Otherwise, team is busted and eliminated right away.
Target PROBE effect
Target negative PROBE rating can add 0-2 to probe strength for the purpose of chance calculations. That's why both tables go two levels above Elite.
Covert Ops Center effect
Covert Ops Center reduces adds 2 to target PROBE rating for the purpose of target PROBE effect computation. Thus effectively nullifying -2 PROBE adverse effect and halving -3 PROBE effect. Doesn't help against -4 PROBE, though.
Own PROBE effect
Positive PROBE rating increases probe morale thus indirectly influencing chances.
Algorithmic enhancement and HSA effects
Other research suggested that Algorithmic enhancement halves failure chance. Whereas Algorithmic enhancement against HSA case halves success chance.
My research supports that statement partially but I was lazy to track all branches for survival chance.
