Alpha Centauri 2

Community => Recreation Commons => Topic started by: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 01:33:33 PM

Title: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 01:33:33 PM

I didn't set out to make Wednesdays "serious" days, It just seems to be working that way. 

Falcon 9 just landed a first stage. 

Promising "Savings of several hundred %" if you believe the hype. 

However, there are a lot of questions and testing to do to see what all would need to be replaced on a returned stage. 

How significant is the landing? 

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Rusty Edge on December 23, 2015, 06:37:02 PM

I said hopefully...

I guess I'd call it "A stride for Mankind." Not only has a technological step in serious/ regular space travel been achieved, but a private enterprise has eclipsed NASA.

Yeah I know, a stride is still just a step, one of many. But that's the way I remember the advancements working in the space program. You lose a few rockets, until you get it right. Then it gets consistently right. There will be more challenges and catastrophic failures and progress, but
Elon Musk is now a success and an inspiration, not a bankrupt failure. Whatever else happens, you can't take this achievement away from him and his team.

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Mart on December 23, 2015, 06:57:56 PM

Quote from: Rusty Edge on December 23, 2015, 06:37:02 PM

... You lose a few rockets, until you get it right. Then it gets consistently right....

Yes, they did it once. The knowledge and skills required are there. Soon, sending people and equipment into Earth's orbit will cost much smaller fraction of what it was so far.
For decades we had little development in space exploration, as for technologies that really could push things forward faster.

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Rusty Edge on December 23, 2015, 07:28:48 PM

My interest is more history than science. The nature of the game that founded the forum, and for that matter, my age  means that most of you will have had a better science education than I have, and more interest in the subject.

Doesn't this tech stride mean that, we could build a rocket ship in orbit now?
( Yeah, I know, there are other problems to be solved before a manned landing on Phobos or Mars )

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Mart on December 23, 2015, 07:38:30 PM

Much cheaper sending stuff into orbit could mean that.
My guesses:
- experimental station on the Moon? working on technologies to extract materials from solar system rocks, other than Earth, etc.
- orbital stations working on zero-gravity technologies in greater extent than now. Habitat issues, supporting life, orbital stations ecosystems, etc.
- maybe even some decent "DS9" station in Lagrangian point between Earth and Moon?

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 07:55:45 PM

Quote from: Rusty Edge on December 23, 2015, 07:28:48 PM

Doesn't this tech stride mean that, we could build a rocket ship in orbit now?
( Yeah, I know, there are other problems to be solved before a manned landing on Phobos or Mars )

Not really.  You need the SLS for that, still. (theoretically a Falcon Heavy, neither have flown yet.)

So.  Let's talk numbers:

Right now, Commercial Launch of a Falcon falls between $65 million and $133 Million. 

Of that, Musk said the fuel is $200k, and the 1st stage costs $18 million. 

Given what I know (and admittedly, I'm knowledgeable of 60's tech and there may be things I can't see)

MINIMUM, you're going to have to replace the nozzles.  Unless they are some material I've never heard of, they can't withstand that kind of firing and come away clean.  I'd guesstimate $100k each as a low estimate.  x9, so lets just ballpark $1 million refurb here. 

Pumps are the second most likely part.  Ballpark $200k...and I can't imagine a design with less than one per motor, so another $2 million here. 

Let's say $2 million more for testing and cleaning/refurbishing of all other parts. 

So, your first stage now comes at $5.5 million, best case, IMO.  Shaving $12.5 million off the total launch...

Huge, yes.  Totally game changing?  More like a 'buy 9 get one free' punch card. 

---

I still contend the last failure was inevitable via SpaceX's procedures, and preventable if they had invested more in the assurance protocols they malign.  The version 1.1 they are now flying changed a lot more than the "faulty strut" as well.  I haven't looked into all the differences, myself, but it's a definite list. 

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 08:07:22 PM

Quote from: Mart on December 23, 2015, 07:38:30 PM

- maybe even some decent "DS9" station in Lagrangian point between Earth and Moon?

Common misconception...The Lagrangian points are actually significantly BEYOND the moon.  L1 being closer to the Sun, and L2 further.  It is L2 that is the present goal, AFAIK. 

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Lorizael on December 24, 2015, 02:51:24 AM

Quote from: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 08:07:22 PM

Quote from: Mart on December 23, 2015, 07:38:30 PM

- maybe even some decent "DS9" station in Lagrangian point between Earth and Moon?

Common misconception...The Lagrangian points are actually significantly BEYOND the moon.  L1 being closer to the Sun, and L2 further.  It is L2 that is the present goal, AFAIK.

There are Langrange points for any two bodies. So you have to specify Earth-Sun or Earth-Moon Lagrange points. L1 for Earth-Moon is closer to the Earth than the Moon is. However, L1 isn't actually stable, and staying there requires doing a weird orbit about the point, which of course takes fuel.

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Buster's Uncle on December 24, 2015, 02:56:32 AM

Same goes for the L2 position beyond the Moon that some talk about wanting to put an observatory/station in - anything very long-lasting would have to do something clever with solar sails to be feasible at all...

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Lorizael on December 24, 2015, 03:28:48 AM

Yeah. Currently we put instruments in the Lagrange points that operate for a decade or so with on-board fuel.

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Buster's Uncle on December 24, 2015, 03:50:31 AM

You mean the stable ones?

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Lorizael on December 24, 2015, 04:23:07 AM

WMAP was at Earth-Sun L2, for example. JWST will be taking its place.

Title: Re: How significant is the Falcon 9 landing?
Post by: Mart on December 24, 2015, 05:37:01 PM

Quote from: Unorthodox on December 23, 2015, 07:55:45 PM

...

So, your first stage now comes at $5.5 million, best case, IMO.  Shaving $12.5 million off the total launch...

Huge, yes.  Totally game changing?  More like a 'buy 9 get one free' punch card. 

Yes, if we consider all costs, it is not that much.
It is however a step in good direction. It also seems, that Dragon spaceship is designed to be reusable, so there are other savings in space exploration costs. Falcon 9 can be a trigger for development of other technologies like that.

It may be decades before we see spaceflight really cheap.
What might be possible meanwhile, is finding yet another way than fuel-burning rockets of sending equipment and people into orbit. And maybe it is not very likely, but who knows.