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Author Topic:   SMAC Generation: Life at 25 in 2024

DJ RRebel posted 12-07-98 12:00 PM ET
Lee Johnson just stated in another thread that he is having a baby in March !!! (Congrats again)
This lead me to a thought !!!
Being 25, I guess I'm considered what distant history will consider as the first generation of technology !!!
At the age of 10-12, VCRs &/or Beta had made its way into a good portion of homes !!
The gaming world took it's first major steps with the Atari !!! (Anyone for a game of Combat ???)
Computer classes were first introduced to schools while I was in elementory school !!!
I had a commodore 64 during my early teenage years !!!
I was able to understand the basics of computer algorithms through good ol' Logo !!!
This to me, is a timeframe people will eventually consider the pioneering years of computing/technology/commmunications !!! Many of us don't realise the increadible changes to our society that are taking place (wether you think the changes are good or bad, it is obvious that the changes are drastic)
Anyways, with this all being said, what do you think it will be like for someone born in 1999 ???
They will obviously have a much different youth than any generation to date !!!
I see the posibility of computers comming into play by kindergarden or before (not at the programming level obviously) .. but, in my opinion, the analitical thinking that will develop as a result in the early stages of growth, will lead to a generation that is vastly smarter than our own (on average)!!!
In 2024, it will be a time where society will probably actually have the ability to adapt to technology, as Moore's law will almost certainly have slowed down !!!
>>> Moore's Law: (Moore> One of the pioneers at Intel) The law basically states that about every 18 months technology will double !!!
If that law were to continue to then, in 2024, computers will work at about 65 Terahertz, or roughly 65 million megahertz !!! This improvent would also be compounded with improvements in comunications and many other things !!!
This will mean that your kids will be able to comunicate to friends in China better than we were able to comunicate with our neighbors across town !!! Will this finally lead to a raceless society, where every human is indeed equal ??? (Personally, I think it will come much after 2024, but I wanted to get the discussion started)
The key to creating harmony through out the world, is communication, if we can communicate with our global neighbors, we can understand them, when we understand, we do not fear ... and when we do not fear, we do not hate !!! (Well, most of the time)
It will be likely that by then, virtually every child in the modern world will speak English as a first or second language ... almost every one in the modern world will be able to understand each other .. the consequences of this, in my opinion are nothing short of profoundly amazing !!!
Our children will live in a time, where virtually all their real world questions can be answered at the click of a few buttons !!!
On the topic of their games .. LOL .. I have only one thing to say >>> *DROOL* !!!
I have many more thoughts on this, but I'll take a few breaths now and leave some room for you people to discuss things !!!
The topic is actually Life at 25 in 2024 (born in 1999), but feel free to discuss anything based on anyone being born in 1999 or later !!!
I have a feeling that in 1000 years, they'll look at my generation with envy, but it is really the SMAC generation who they should envy !!!
Octopus posted 12-07-98 12:17 PM ET
DJ: If Moore's law breaks down, the high-tech business model (where you are basically competing with your own installed base) will be destroyed. Therefore high-tech companies will be motivated to keep it in action (nothing motivates a company to develop technology like the fear of becoming unprofitable). However, with the advent of "sub $1000 PCs", some people have become satisfied with lower computing power. If that trend continues (being satiated with yesterday's technology) then the high-tech business model will break down on its own.
Actually, though, Moore's law isn't about technology in general, but about the size of a transistor. I'm not sure when we will hit the limits of physics with the size of transistors, but we should be getting close in a number of years. Advancing beyond that will require a fundamentally new technology.
Lee Johnson posted 12-07-98 12:24 PM ET
I hesitate to make any guesses about where technology will be 25 years from now. Look at the state of personal computing 25 years ago: In 1973, personal computers were in the hands of hobbyists. From a price/performance viewpoint, they were hideously expensive by modern standards. The 8080 and 6800 microprocessors weren't introduced until 1974; the 6502 appeared in 1975.
I didn't buy my first computer until 1977; it had 1K of RAM, a six-character LED display, and a hex keypad. What can you put in 1K of RAM today? :-)
Never in my wildest dreams could I have envisioned the powerful machines we take for granted now, and the enormously complex software we run on them. Who knows what we'll be running on computers 25 years from now? I don't--but I'm sure we'll have fun with them. :-)
Steel_Dragon posted 12-07-98 12:28 PM ET
The atom is the fundamental limit of our present technology and we are very quickly aproaching it.
As for life in twenty years.
People will be wearing their computers in their clothes, powered by walking, no more siting in front of a computer. I hope we get better acess limits before this Utopia comes in to existants. There are something kids need to figure out not be told. People will hopefully be living in Utopia(an area on Mars). It is amazing the things you learn when you have to look somthing up. An human exlporation of the outer solar system should have begun.
DJ RRebel posted 12-07-98 03:08 PM ET
Octopus .. actually, what the companies will lose in turnover time per PC-person, they will gain in the actual # of people with computers .. so the execive growth will be stopped enventually, but a certain level will be maintained !!! Of course, eventually, PC's will be much more powerful than the programs designed for them, so in the end, it will actually be software that holds back technoligy more than anything else !!!
Lee, how do you envision your child's life in his/her's first 25 years ???
SteelDragon, I agree with you on the access limits for children, eventually, it really comes down to the parents having to regulate their children's usage, as there are always ways around age access limits !!! That's one thing that probably won't change in 25 years !!! LOL
Octopus posted 12-07-98 10:21 PM ET
"eventually, PC's will be much more powerful than the programs designed for them"
That's already started, DJ. Companies like Intel don't want to be in the Celeron business. There's no margin there (costs almost equal the price you can charge). These "cheap" PCs are coming about because some people are satisfied with a machine that can just surf the web and send e-mail. You don't need a top of the line machine to do that.
"actually, what the companies will lose in turnover time per PC-person, they will gain in the actual # of people with computers"
I'm not sure exactly what you mean here, but the factor that hits high-tech companies the most is that the profits are low on extremely cheap parts. Also, if nobody cared about replacing their computers, the market for PCs would be considerably reduced. Also, once everybody's got a computer, then there won't be any growth available by attracting new customers (and we can't be more than 10 or 20 years away from everybody having a computer). Making a high-tech business profitable isn't easy.
If people stop caring about performance (which they have to some degree) it isn't exactly clear what direction the computer industry will go. Moore's law may still be applicable, but it may not translate into faster performance anymore, but into something else.
Spoe posted 12-07-98 10:43 PM ET
Heh, 25 years ago, the microprocessor was 2 years old(Intel 4004 in 1971). The 4004 had 2300 transistors(compare to the 7.3 million on the PII) and ran at 108 kHz and was a 10 micron chip. Today Intel is talking about a reduction to 0.18 microns. It could address a total of 640 bytes and had a 4 bit bus. Seems rather pitiful doesn't it? All great technological revolutions have humble beginings, no?
DJ RRebel posted 12-08-98 05:36 AM ET
Octopus, what I meant is, let's say, there are 100 million owners PCs world wide, and that the current turnover rate is 2 years between computers (making for 50 million new PCs per year) ... eventually, what we discussed will cause the turnover to go to 6 years, but by then, there will 300 million PC owners (again making 50 million PCs a year)!!!
(I'm sure my numbers are off, but I just used them as an example)
Anyways, lets get back to discussing life at 25 in 2024, and that same person's youth !!!
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Author	Topic: SMAC Generation: Life at 25 in 2024
DJ RRebel	posted 12-07-98 12:00 PM ET Lee Johnson just stated in another thread that he is having a baby in March !!! (Congrats again) This lead me to a thought !!! Being 25, I guess I'm considered what distant history will consider as the first generation of technology !!! At the age of 10-12, VCRs &/or Beta had made its way into a good portion of homes !! The gaming world took it's first major steps with the Atari !!! (Anyone for a game of Combat ???) Computer classes were first introduced to schools while I was in elementory school !!! I had a commodore 64 during my early teenage years !!! I was able to understand the basics of computer algorithms through good ol' Logo !!! This to me, is a timeframe people will eventually consider the pioneering years of computing/technology/commmunications !!! Many of us don't realise the increadible changes to our society that are taking place (wether you think the changes are good or bad, it is obvious that the changes are drastic) Anyways, with this all being said, what do you think it will be like for someone born in 1999 ??? They will obviously have a much different youth than any generation to date !!! I see the posibility of computers comming into play by kindergarden or before (not at the programming level obviously) .. but, in my opinion, the analitical thinking that will develop as a result in the early stages of growth, will lead to a generation that is vastly smarter than our own (on average)!!! In 2024, it will be a time where society will probably actually have the ability to adapt to technology, as Moore's law will almost certainly have slowed down !!! >>> Moore's Law: (Moore> One of the pioneers at Intel) The law basically states that about every 18 months technology will double !!! If that law were to continue to then, in 2024, computers will work at about 65 Terahertz, or roughly 65 million megahertz !!! This improvent would also be compounded with improvements in comunications and many other things !!! This will mean that your kids will be able to comunicate to friends in China better than we were able to comunicate with our neighbors across town !!! Will this finally lead to a raceless society, where every human is indeed equal ??? (Personally, I think it will come much after 2024, but I wanted to get the discussion started) The key to creating harmony through out the world, is communication, if we can communicate with our global neighbors, we can understand them, when we understand, we do not fear ... and when we do not fear, we do not hate !!! (Well, most of the time) It will be likely that by then, virtually every child in the modern world will speak English as a first or second language ... almost every one in the modern world will be able to understand each other .. the consequences of this, in my opinion are nothing short of profoundly amazing !!! Our children will live in a time, where virtually all their real world questions can be answered at the click of a few buttons !!! On the topic of their games .. LOL .. I have only one thing to say >>> DROOL !!! I have many more thoughts on this, but I'll take a few breaths now and leave some room for you people to discuss things !!! The topic is actually Life at 25 in 2024 (born in 1999), but feel free to discuss anything based on anyone being born in 1999 or later !!! I have a feeling that in 1000 years, they'll look at my generation with envy, but it is really the SMAC generation who they should envy !!!
Octopus	posted 12-07-98 12:17 PM ET DJ: If Moore's law breaks down, the high-tech business model (where you are basically competing with your own installed base) will be destroyed. Therefore high-tech companies will be motivated to keep it in action (nothing motivates a company to develop technology like the fear of becoming unprofitable). However, with the advent of "sub $1000 PCs", some people have become satisfied with lower computing power. If that trend continues (being satiated with yesterday's technology) then the high-tech business model will break down on its own. Actually, though, Moore's law isn't about technology in general, but about the size of a transistor. I'm not sure when we will hit the limits of physics with the size of transistors, but we should be getting close in a number of years. Advancing beyond that will require a fundamentally new technology.
Lee Johnson	posted 12-07-98 12:24 PM ET I hesitate to make any guesses about where technology will be 25 years from now. Look at the state of personal computing 25 years ago: In 1973, personal computers were in the hands of hobbyists. From a price/performance viewpoint, they were hideously expensive by modern standards. The 8080 and 6800 microprocessors weren't introduced until 1974; the 6502 appeared in 1975. I didn't buy my first computer until 1977; it had 1K of RAM, a six-character LED display, and a hex keypad. What can you put in 1K of RAM today? :-) Never in my wildest dreams could I have envisioned the powerful machines we take for granted now, and the enormously complex software we run on them. Who knows what we'll be running on computers 25 years from now? I don't--but I'm sure we'll have fun with them. :-)
Steel_Dragon	posted 12-07-98 12:28 PM ET The atom is the fundamental limit of our present technology and we are very quickly aproaching it. As for life in twenty years. People will be wearing their computers in their clothes, powered by walking, no more siting in front of a computer. I hope we get better acess limits before this Utopia comes in to existants. There are something kids need to figure out not be told. People will hopefully be living in Utopia(an area on Mars). It is amazing the things you learn when you have to look somthing up. An human exlporation of the outer solar system should have begun.
DJ RRebel	posted 12-07-98 03:08 PM ET Octopus .. actually, what the companies will lose in turnover time per PC-person, they will gain in the actual # of people with computers .. so the execive growth will be stopped enventually, but a certain level will be maintained !!! Of course, eventually, PC's will be much more powerful than the programs designed for them, so in the end, it will actually be software that holds back technoligy more than anything else !!! Lee, how do you envision your child's life in his/her's first 25 years ??? SteelDragon, I agree with you on the access limits for children, eventually, it really comes down to the parents having to regulate their children's usage, as there are always ways around age access limits !!! That's one thing that probably won't change in 25 years !!! LOL
Octopus	posted 12-07-98 10:21 PM ET "eventually, PC's will be much more powerful than the programs designed for them" That's already started, DJ. Companies like Intel don't want to be in the Celeron business. There's no margin there (costs almost equal the price you can charge). These "cheap" PCs are coming about because some people are satisfied with a machine that can just surf the web and send e-mail. You don't need a top of the line machine to do that. "actually, what the companies will lose in turnover time per PC-person, they will gain in the actual # of people with computers" I'm not sure exactly what you mean here, but the factor that hits high-tech companies the most is that the profits are low on extremely cheap parts. Also, if nobody cared about replacing their computers, the market for PCs would be considerably reduced. Also, once everybody's got a computer, then there won't be any growth available by attracting new customers (and we can't be more than 10 or 20 years away from everybody having a computer). Making a high-tech business profitable isn't easy. If people stop caring about performance (which they have to some degree) it isn't exactly clear what direction the computer industry will go. Moore's law may still be applicable, but it may not translate into faster performance anymore, but into something else.
Spoe	posted 12-07-98 10:43 PM ET Heh, 25 years ago, the microprocessor was 2 years old(Intel 4004 in 1971). The 4004 had 2300 transistors(compare to the 7.3 million on the PII) and ran at 108 kHz and was a 10 micron chip. Today Intel is talking about a reduction to 0.18 microns. It could address a total of 640 bytes and had a 4 bit bus. Seems rather pitiful doesn't it? All great technological revolutions have humble beginings, no?
DJ RRebel	posted 12-08-98 05:36 AM ET Octopus, what I meant is, let's say, there are 100 million owners PCs world wide, and that the current turnover rate is 2 years between computers (making for 50 million new PCs per year) ... eventually, what we discussed will cause the turnover to go to 6 years, but by then, there will 300 million PC owners (again making 50 million PCs a year)!!! (I'm sure my numbers are off, but I just used them as an example) Anyways, lets get back to discussing life at 25 in 2024, and that same person's youth !!!