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Author Topic:   future predictions

FlyingDutchman posted 07-22-99 04:55 AM ET
I'd like to know how ya'all see humanity developing in the foreseeable future and beyond...
I am a biochemist by profession so my ideas concerning this development are not entirely unbiased, but also not really unrealistic. So, just some personal points for you to comment on :
1. Ethically, there is precious little reason against cloning technology...the one that does stand out, however, is that even the most conscientious scientist can not know what effects of this technique will be in - say - 10 or 20 years from now (for the concerned clones)...And I am not talking about cloning humans (which is possible and probably will be implemented in many medical treatments) but cloning in general...
2. The same arguments for genetic techniques. As the HUGO project is nearing its end, and scientists all over the world can have a 'map' of the human genome, understanding of genetic mechanisms will increase to the point of direct interventions in the genetic material of animals and plants (as is done now, and has has been done by trial and error for many centuries/millenia) and ultimately, human beings...
3.All of these advances will lead to a large increase in the average lifespan of citizens of developed countries...With all usually associated problems, such as the increased costs of healthcare, but premiums for insurances should drop drastically (meaning insurance companies have to find different ways of ensuring income...)
4. I do not have much of an economic background, but it seems to me that unlimited economic growth will only go so far, especially when considering that the earth now 'hosts' 6 billion people...
If economy remains more important than well-being (even defined economically) I see no other options than the development of (how appropriate) hab-spheres and colonies on different planets...More out of necessity than as a fancy or point of prestige...
5. This will in time lead to earth and non-earth factions all with their own interests and possibly to a different kind of human being altogether...
I hope mankind will at some point learn enough of its mistakes in the past to transcend any potential discrimination on this part...
6. If I read some of the non-SMAC topics, I have high hopes for humanity, as we all seem to agree that there are a lot of ignorant people out there, and we SMACcers are not. BUT, if this is the case, and WE forum-users are not ignorant, why do we have the idea we cannot change things on larger scales than - say - one's own family and friends...(Which is very important as well, of course)
I mean, let's put out money where our mouths are...
Or is it too easy to vent one's frustrations in such a detached way and keep it at that ? Let's reach out to those ignorants and see what happens...
You down wit' dat ? (So sue me...)
M_ashwell posted 07-22-99 07:51 AM ET
i see man sperading to cover the solar system
then using the earth as a giant waste dump (red dwarf : Better than life)
FlyingDutchman posted 07-22-99 07:57 AM ET
Ooooh, a fellow smeghead !
Seriously though, wouldn't the sun be an ideal waste disposal unit ? Apart from as yet unforeseen consequences shoving all our waste into that giant fissionfurnace seems to have quite some possibilities...
Trappist posted 07-22-99 04:55 PM ET
Social collapse, the "dying back" of civilisation into a new dark age accellerated by super-bugs and hyper-resistant crop blights coupled with sporadic wars across the globe.
I could bang on for hours in this vein (and will given half a chance) but I've done this a few times before and don't want to bore anyone unduly. My website's got more on this theme- just try to ignore all the broken images I can't be arsed to fix.
Apocalyptically yours, as ever....
The Official Harbinger of Doom.
M_ashwell posted 07-22-99 07:51 PM ET
correct Flyingdutchman but i couldn't resist the quote!
Dreadnought posted 07-22-99 08:02 PM ET
Isn't the sun a giant fusion furnace? Remember the song?
The sun is a mass of incondecsant gas
A gigantic nuclear furnace, furnace
Where hydrogen is built in to helium
At a temperature of milions of degrees
The sun is hot
The sun is not
A place where we could be
But without the sun
Without a doubt
There'd be no you and me!
Well, it doesnt really specificly say in there whether the sun is fusion or fission, I just know.
FlyingDutchman posted 07-23-99 03:02 AM ET
Dreadnought,
Yep ! You're quite correct, the sun is of course mainly powered by fusion...
Somehow I never know which is which in English...Guess I'm just too !@#$ stupid to let it sink in once and forever...
Yours shamefacedly,
Saras posted 07-23-99 05:32 AM ET
I believe humanity will become more at peace with itself, with free flow of people, capital and goods all over the place (well, maybe not North Korea...). This would spark creativity and science, and we would reach for the stars.
And the Earth can sustain more than six billion of us. Actually, if every family on earth had an average American suburb house, we'd all fit in Oregon.
RM posted 08-01-99 11:31 AM ET
In Europe, the EU will become the dominant organisation. Power will gradually be moved away from the elected representatives and parliaments to more beaurocratic organisations, until democracy is just a name and the elected have no say. If you can pay for expensive lobbying (large donations to the politicians), you still have a chance to influence the EU.
The borders within EU will open, but to other nations there will be high tax barriers. Immigration will be almost stopped, but famous athletes and people with a high education, like doctors, will have no trouble becoming citizens.
Conflicts between EU and Turkey is inevitable. Greece will do anything it can to keep Turkey out of EU, while Turkey will be disappointed that EU would rather have the old enemies as members, than their old allies (EU will expand east). The conflicts does not have to lead to war, but I would not be surprised if they did.
Government owned schools and hospitals will belong to the past. There will be good private schools for those who can pay for it, but many will have to be content with the poor quality education that is provided for free by various religious and extremist movements. Analphabetism and superstition will increase.
Similar developments will happen (are already happening) in all industrialised countries, and many other countries as well.
The UN will be less important and more or less ignored. It will make it possible for the strongest of the EU nations, USA and maybe China and Japan, to force their will on less powerful countries.
Politically the western world will be more isolationistic, not caring much for what happens in the rest of the world, as long as they do not cost us any money or pose a threat to us (or any of our investments). When they do pose a threat, the western world will not hesitate to start a war.
The population will continue to grow in the underdeveloped world, until a physical maximum is reached. Then it will be regulated naturally by starvation and disease. Extremist movements, mostly religious, but also political, will continue to grow.
Nuclear weapons will spread to more of the poor countries.

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Author	Topic: future predictions
FlyingDutchman	posted 07-22-99 04:55 AM ET I'd like to know how ya'all see humanity developing in the foreseeable future and beyond... I am a biochemist by profession so my ideas concerning this development are not entirely unbiased, but also not really unrealistic. So, just some personal points for you to comment on : 1. Ethically, there is precious little reason against cloning technology...the one that does stand out, however, is that even the most conscientious scientist can not know what effects of this technique will be in - say - 10 or 20 years from now (for the concerned clones)...And I am not talking about cloning humans (which is possible and probably will be implemented in many medical treatments) but cloning in general... 2. The same arguments for genetic techniques. As the HUGO project is nearing its end, and scientists all over the world can have a 'map' of the human genome, understanding of genetic mechanisms will increase to the point of direct interventions in the genetic material of animals and plants (as is done now, and has has been done by trial and error for many centuries/millenia) and ultimately, human beings... 3.All of these advances will lead to a large increase in the average lifespan of citizens of developed countries...With all usually associated problems, such as the increased costs of healthcare, but premiums for insurances should drop drastically (meaning insurance companies have to find different ways of ensuring income...) 4. I do not have much of an economic background, but it seems to me that unlimited economic growth will only go so far, especially when considering that the earth now 'hosts' 6 billion people... If economy remains more important than well-being (even defined economically) I see no other options than the development of (how appropriate) hab-spheres and colonies on different planets...More out of necessity than as a fancy or point of prestige... 5. This will in time lead to earth and non-earth factions all with their own interests and possibly to a different kind of human being altogether... I hope mankind will at some point learn enough of its mistakes in the past to transcend any potential discrimination on this part... 6. If I read some of the non-SMAC topics, I have high hopes for humanity, as we all seem to agree that there are a lot of ignorant people out there, and we SMACcers are not. BUT, if this is the case, and WE forum-users are not ignorant, why do we have the idea we cannot change things on larger scales than - say - one's own family and friends...(Which is very important as well, of course) I mean, let's put out money where our mouths are... Or is it too easy to vent one's frustrations in such a detached way and keep it at that ? Let's reach out to those ignorants and see what happens... You down wit' dat ? (So sue me...)
M_ashwell	posted 07-22-99 07:51 AM ET i see man sperading to cover the solar system then using the earth as a giant waste dump (red dwarf : Better than life)
FlyingDutchman	posted 07-22-99 07:57 AM ET Ooooh, a fellow smeghead ! Seriously though, wouldn't the sun be an ideal waste disposal unit ? Apart from as yet unforeseen consequences shoving all our waste into that giant fissionfurnace seems to have quite some possibilities...
Trappist	posted 07-22-99 04:55 PM ET Social collapse, the "dying back" of civilisation into a new dark age accellerated by super-bugs and hyper-resistant crop blights coupled with sporadic wars across the globe. I could bang on for hours in this vein (and will given half a chance) but I've done this a few times before and don't want to bore anyone unduly. My website's got more on this theme- just try to ignore all the broken images I can't be arsed to fix. Apocalyptically yours, as ever.... The Official Harbinger of Doom.
M_ashwell	posted 07-22-99 07:51 PM ET correct Flyingdutchman but i couldn't resist the quote!
Dreadnought	posted 07-22-99 08:02 PM ET Isn't the sun a giant fusion furnace? Remember the song? The sun is a mass of incondecsant gas A gigantic nuclear furnace, furnace Where hydrogen is built in to helium At a temperature of milions of degrees The sun is hot The sun is not A place where we could be But without the sun Without a doubt There'd be no you and me! Well, it doesnt really specificly say in there whether the sun is fusion or fission, I just know.
FlyingDutchman	posted 07-23-99 03:02 AM ET Dreadnought, Yep ! You're quite correct, the sun is of course mainly powered by fusion... Somehow I never know which is which in English...Guess I'm just too !@#$ stupid to let it sink in once and forever... Yours shamefacedly,
Saras	posted 07-23-99 05:32 AM ET I believe humanity will become more at peace with itself, with free flow of people, capital and goods all over the place (well, maybe not North Korea...). This would spark creativity and science, and we would reach for the stars. And the Earth can sustain more than six billion of us. Actually, if every family on earth had an average American suburb house, we'd all fit in Oregon.
RM	posted 08-01-99 11:31 AM ET In Europe, the EU will become the dominant organisation. Power will gradually be moved away from the elected representatives and parliaments to more beaurocratic organisations, until democracy is just a name and the elected have no say. If you can pay for expensive lobbying (large donations to the politicians), you still have a chance to influence the EU. The borders within EU will open, but to other nations there will be high tax barriers. Immigration will be almost stopped, but famous athletes and people with a high education, like doctors, will have no trouble becoming citizens. Conflicts between EU and Turkey is inevitable. Greece will do anything it can to keep Turkey out of EU, while Turkey will be disappointed that EU would rather have the old enemies as members, than their old allies (EU will expand east). The conflicts does not have to lead to war, but I would not be surprised if they did. Government owned schools and hospitals will belong to the past. There will be good private schools for those who can pay for it, but many will have to be content with the poor quality education that is provided for free by various religious and extremist movements. Analphabetism and superstition will increase. Similar developments will happen (are already happening) in all industrialised countries, and many other countries as well. The UN will be less important and more or less ignored. It will make it possible for the strongest of the EU nations, USA and maybe China and Japan, to force their will on less powerful countries. Politically the western world will be more isolationistic, not caring much for what happens in the rest of the world, as long as they do not cost us any money or pose a threat to us (or any of our investments). When they do pose a threat, the western world will not hesitate to start a war. The population will continue to grow in the underdeveloped world, until a physical maximum is reached. Then it will be regulated naturally by starvation and disease. Extremist movements, mostly religious, but also political, will continue to grow. Nuclear weapons will spread to more of the poor countries.