Author
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Topic: Reagan Revisited
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High Priest |
posted 06-04-99 12:56 PM ET
Due to some references in the Socialism thread, some would like to resee my stats in the Reagan thread:Lets get some raw facts here. (All statistics take inflation into account) From 1983-1990, the Mean household income in the lowest Quintile (lowest twenty percent wage earners) rose 7.3%. Second rose 8.7% Third rose 8.8% Fourth rose 9.8% Fifth rose 17.7% (Source, U.S. Bureau of the Census Report) From 1983 to 1989, the percentage of this country below the poverty line went from 15.2% to 12.8%. (Source, American Almanac 1993 ed.) From 1980-1990, the percentage share of tax burden among all five quintiles Lowest, 1.6%-1.6% Second, 7%-6.6% Third, 13.4%-12.6% Fourth, 22.2%-21% Fifth, 55.7%-58.1% (Source, Congressional Budget Office) From 1983-1989, the increase of Income Tax Revenues went from 275.3 billion dollars a year, to 354.4 billion dollars a year, including a thirty percent tax cut and a stock market crash. Who says supply-side economics doesn't work? (Source, IRS Statistics of Income) From 1981-1988, the amount of Federal Social spending went from 11.6% to 10.9%. Yet the percent of GNP provided by the States and local governments (who could handle the money better than the Feds) to Social Programs went from 7% in 1981 to 7.6% in 1988. (source, Information Please Almanac, 1991 edition) Now to the question of the National Debt. First of all, the vast majority of the bloating debt occured because of the interest on the debt, and when interest compounds, the debt grows at an alarming rate. Yet when you look at the stats, in 1983, the debt was growing at a rate of 117% a year, yet by 1988, the debt was growing 110% a year, almost half as fast. Except for a brief period in 1990(Bush), the debt has fallen at about the same rate until it hits an even 100% under Clinton, and look who takes credit. (Source, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Public Deficit) Obviously, it was possible for Reagan to balance the budget, but which is more important, an enemy superpower or a balanced budget. He chose the Soviets, and I can hardly blame him. The reason the Soviet Union fell was not because they were destined to fall, but because Reagan's hardball defense spending and negotiating forced them to outspend themselves, and eventually choose to end the Cold War. The Soviet Union could of lasted a long time.(Technically an opinion) More info will come on the next post High Priest
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High Priest
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posted 06-04-99 01:04 PM ET
All righty now. I did disvover one horrible problem with these stats, i failed to talk about charities Not too bad, 'cause I have the info right here Remember inflation is taken into account Social Budgets: the percentage of total federal outlays in '81: 54% in 88: 49.1% Amount of capital in dollars put into social spending: '81, 344 billion, '88, 532 billion. The percent of state and local outlays for social spending in: '81, 63.1%, $207 billion '88, 60.1%, $363 billion total govt. social spending: '81, 56.9% '88, 52.8% (Source, Information Please Almanac, 1991 edition) Note: The percent of GNP can be found in my last post. This shows that while Reagan cut the percent of social spending, the amount of money to social causes went up considerably. Number below poverty line: '83: 35.3 million '89: 31.5 million (percentages are on previous post) (Source, American Almanac, 1993 edition) Lets look at job creation: Percentage of jobs created paying under $7,012: Carter: 42.77% Reagan 6% $7,012-$28,048 Carter: 68.2% Reagan: 46.2% Over $28,048: Carter: -9.9% (yep, thats a negative) Reagan: 46.1% Now to those earning $200,000 or more: Tax Rate in '80, 70%; '88, 28% #of returns '80, 117,000; '88, 725,000 %of income '80, 7.5%; '88, 25.3% Total taxes collected '80, $250.3 billion; '88, $412.9 billion (IRS Statistics-published October 12, 1992 in Arkansas Democrat gazette) Hmmmmm... Now an interesting question has been brought up as to tax deductions. True, some deductions were taken away, but the principle cause of the deductions to begin with was to get rich people to spend more money to build up the economy. So most were on things the rich (or anyone) might like, for instance a country club membership, or a credit deduction from a car. Well, it turned out that this wasn't strengthening the economy(I'm not just talking about taxes here). Therefore, by cutting most of these deductions, the rich spent money elsewhere, where they could get a deduction and strengthen the economy, like their own businesses. See a pattern? (Happy, not a statistic for once!) So, to answer your question, these stats should prove that the govt. really didn't charge more, they helped redirect the outlet of money from luxuries to investments. And I think I've answered the Social spending. High Priest charities next |
High Priest
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posted 06-04-99 01:12 PM ET
Membership in Greenpeace from 1990-93 went down 44%in Wilderness society, down 35% in National wildlife Federation, down 14% A few smaller notes: Donations to charities from 92-93 went down 1.5%. '91-92 Avg. household donations went from $899 to $880 Volunteered time went from 51.1% to 47.7%. Now even I was a bit dissappointed by these stats in realtion to Reagan, being as i don't think they give enough info. I do think that they clearly portray a general trend of charity giving for the socialist/capitalist debate. High Priest |
High Priest
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posted 06-04-99 01:18 PM ET
Oh, and this really wasn't designed as a Reagan debate area. If you want to debate, I will need to bring up the past debate(in which the Reagan-haters honorably surrendered), mostly 'cause unless you can say something that hasn't been thrown out(and I now some of you might have interesting things to say) before, or can at least help topple the Reagonites, I really don't feel like going through this again.High Priest |
walruskkkch
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posted 06-04-99 02:36 PM ET
You have done a wonderful job of pinpointing exactly why Ronald Wilson Reagan will go down in the history of the United States as truly one of the, if not THE, greatest President that this country can claim. Bill Clinton can only thank his lucky stars that he is the inheiritor of an economy made strong again by Reagan.Sign me, A true believer |
High Priest
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posted 06-04-99 03:33 PM ET
All right |
DanS
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posted 06-04-99 04:56 PM ET
Whatever... |
Valtyr
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posted 06-04-99 04:59 PM ET
Oh no, not the "I love Ronnie" society again! |
Spoe
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posted 06-04-99 06:24 PM ET
Interesting trivia fact: Ronald Reagan is the only US President to also have been the leader of a labor union. |
Mcerion
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posted 06-05-99 04:20 PM ET
He eliminated the tax deduction for the interest on your credit card debts, hardly a high income luxury, and he also eliminated the deduction for your car loan interest, again not a high end luxury item. This in effect raised most people's taxes. Only people who made over $125k a year got a tax break. Trickle down economics, more accurately, table scrap economics. Good boy. Sit. Roll over. Beg! |
Mcerion
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posted 06-05-99 04:25 PM ET
I just noticed Spoe's post. Spoe are you saying Reagan was a friend of the Unions? He single handedly destroyed the Air Traffic Controllers union. That led to the weakening of all the unions. Reagan was an enemy of the working man. He didn't give a sh*t about the average guy. All he cared about was the rich. |
Mcerion
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posted 06-05-99 04:33 PM ET
A popular myth is that Reagan was responsible for destroying the "evil empire". The truth is the Soviet Union collapsed under its own weight. It simply couldn't control all of those satellite nations anymore. Its bureaucratic economy was intrinsically weak. If the Soviet Union was to endure it needed the iron will of the old guard, i.e. Stalin and his ilk. The old guard was dead and a new generation was itching to its hands on the reins of power. This desire for reform swept Gorbachev into power. |
Ronbo
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posted 06-05-99 05:51 PM ET
Mcerion, I am not going to take the time to rebut all of your posts (and I can), but your view of PATCO is a bit off. First off, they were endangering the lives of every person who was a passenger aboard an aircraft in the US, not simply slowing down or inconveniencing them. Further, they were in violation of their charter, which PROHIBITED strikes. Then they continued the illegal strike when they were ordered back to their jobs. Reagan fired them only after they defied the order. It's a shame that Clinton allowed them to seek federal employment again, because after the stunt they pulled, they should have remain barred from any governmental job. Of course, you probably disagree with me... |
Roland
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posted 06-07-99 03:41 AM ET
Within the context of the socialism debate, what exactly is the point you are trying to make with this I-love-Ronnie stuff ? |
Ronbo
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posted 06-07-99 07:29 AM ET
Roland,HP started a new thread so this info did not end up in the socialism thread. The "I Love Ronnie" stuff, as you put it, is one of the strongest possible rebuttals to all of the arguments against socialism. Despite what the revisionists would have you believe, the 80s were a time of great prosperity for capitalist societies such as the US and (especially) Great Britain, which went from a declining, third rate socialist economy to one of the most dynamic in the world. The year Margaret Thatcher took over 10 Downing Street, Britain had the smallest of the G7 economies; when she stepped down in 1990, only the US and Germany were bigger. |
Roland
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posted 06-07-99 08:33 AM ET
Ehm...HP started a new thread so this info did not end up in the socialism thread. I know, I'm just wondering about the exact point... The "I Love Ronnie" stuff, as you put it, is one of the strongest possible rebuttals to all of the arguments against socialism. you mean... _for_ socialism ? The year Margaret Thatcher took over 10 Downing Street, Britain had the smallest of the G7 economies; when she stepped down in 1990, only the US and Germany were bigger. Nice try, but: G7: US Japan Germany France Italy UK Canada I very much doubt UK's GDP was smaller than that of Canada in 1979, with Britain having twice the population (as long as we're talking PPPs and not some weird exchange rates). In 1990, Japan's GDP was definately still bigger, and only an overvalued pound could bring it beyond France; Italy is also about the same level as the UK. And UK GDP growth from 1979-1990 (or -1998, for that matter) isn't very impressive either.
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High Priest
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posted 06-07-99 10:43 AM ET
hehehe, Mcerion's back for more At any rate, I have to leave for a few weeks, but I would like to point out that just a small part of this has to do with socialism=the charities in success part. High Priest Gotta love Reagan |
Tolls
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posted 06-07-99 10:48 AM ET
Oh bum...you beat me to it, Roland. Britain's growth rate in the 80s wasn't all that impressive, I believe it was less than France, Germany and Italy...remember there were 2 big crashes then. |
Ronbo
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posted 06-09-99 01:28 AM ET
Mea Culpa-that is the last time that I will try to post anything at 4:30 am again...You are right about Canada having a smaller economy, and Japan having a bigger economy. I had read several threads, and incorrectly extrapolated the info from them. Both of my statements would be correct if they were changed to "Western Europe" rather than G7. Britain's GDP growth may not have been impressive compared with Asia or some of the smaller European countries, but it was a damn sight better than what happened in the early seventies, when the ostensibly conservative Heath government, and its Labourite successor flushed Britain's economy down the tubes. My mother's best friend emigrated from England during that period to escape the horrible economic conditions (she retained her British citizenship, as she loved England, despite the problems). |
Roland
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posted 06-09-99 03:58 AM ET
Both of my statements would be correct if they were changed to "Western Europe" rather than G7. Sorry to be annoying, but that would give: "The year Margaret Thatcher took over 10 Downing Street, Britain had the smallest of the Western Europe economies; when she stepped down in 1990, only the US and Germany were bigger." The UK hasn't overtaken France, and you could argue about Italy. Britain's GDP growth may not have been impressive compared with Asia or some of the smaller European countries, but it was a damn sight better than what happened in the early seventies, when the ostensibly conservative Heath government, and its Labourite successor flushed Britain's economy down the tubes. Yes, and I agree with several conservative policies of the time. Just that UK's growth has been lower than that of continental Europe for 1989-1998 by about 0,3 % per year; it has been higher in boom years, but recession has been much deeper (in that decade, both had one recession). I think the pattern is the same for 1980-1990, but I'd have to check this. It's also funny that the UK is now slower than Germany, but in the anglosaxon media, people seem to be talking about germany's problems only. Funny... |
High Priest
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posted 08-23-99 02:03 AM ET
Well, I have been gone for a while, But being as Mcerion is still here, babbling his liberal crap, I decided to make a very obvious response, and proof that Mcerion(or Genejack, as he is now called) never read my post.Your statement that tax cuts were only for those making 200K or over proves that you have no idea what you are talking about, and didn't even read my post. Proof(once again): From 1980-1990, the percentage share of tax burden among all five quintiles Lowest, 1.6%-1.6% Second, 7%-6.6% Third, 13.4%-12.6% Fourth, 22.2%-21% Fifth, 55.7%-58.1% (Source, Congressional Budget Office) Oh dear, it seems that while the lowest did stay the same, the highest was the only on that rose. It would seem that Reagan made tax cuts for the poor and middle class, while raising tax burden for the rich. That combined with overall lower taxes makes tax cuts for the lower classes huge. The main reason the poor stayed relatively the same is through welfare(more liberal crap) and the long term damage it has inflicted on this nation. One thing you must remember(or sometime be taught) is that most truly "rich" people live like middle classers. They simply invest their money and/or time much more wisely. Want Proof? Read "The Millionaire Next Door" by Thomas Stanley, and someone else who I can't remember on hand. What this means is that the rich gradually get richer when the economy is good(for obvious reasons of money sense), while the poor have no way to get out of the pit made by the liberals with welfare. The middle class is(and was) borrowing too much money, and not investing it where they should. Supply Side Economics helps those who help themselves Sorry if your idea of an economy's prosperity is the size of your welfare check As to your pathetic statements about credit cards and car loans, the tax cuts weren't THAT big to begin with, you don't HAVE to pay everything with a credit card, and you don't NEED a big fancy car. Plus, these setbacks were made well into Reagan's precidency, and show no (or very little) impact on my long running statistics. Reagan helped those who helped themselves. As to the Soviets, the fact that their economy might have collapsed doesn't mean that the Cold War would have ended. With all those nukes and military personnel in the wrong hands could have been real trouble. It seems a coincidence that Gorbachev was appointed, and tensions began to warm, at the same time Star Wars and other large defense projects came into being. The main reason the Soviet economy collapsed when it did was because of far too much defense spending, trying to compete with Reagan. It could probably have kept chugging along, fueled by vast(untouched) oil reserves. It didn't start having real problems until Reagan came along. Watch PBS's documentary on Reagan: although poor in some areas, it gives an accurate view of what I am saying. Also, Stalin did very little to help the Soviet Union in the long run. In fact, with his poisoning(not in the literal sense) the government and putting to death many of Russia's backbone, many Socialists believe their expirement would have succeeded if not for Stalin. You can never believe a socialist, though, and I probably disagree with the last statement, but its still interesting to point out. High Priest PS I'm not saying there isn't good info out there that can refute what I say, but stop the stupid, uninformed propoganda. PSS Opposing arguments have simply reinforced my ideals, thanx Mcerion PSSS And please, Mcerion/Genejack, read my post before answering, at least I have the dignity to read yours. |
Genejack 624
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posted 08-23-99 05:03 PM ET
I'm currently researching a response. I will post it as soon as it is done. |
High Priest
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posted 08-23-99 05:38 PM ET
All right, looking forward to it |
Giant Squid
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posted 08-23-99 07:30 PM ET
quote: Trees cause more pollution than automobiles do." Reagan '81
quote:
"Facts are stupid things." '88 (slight misquote of John Adams, 'Facts are stubborn things.')
quote: "I have flown twice over Mt St Helens out on our west coast. I'm not a scientist and I don't know the figures, but I have a suspicion that that one little mountain has probably released more sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere of the world than has been released in the last ten years of automobile driving or things of that kind that people are so concerned about." Reagan '80. Actually, Mount St. Helens, at its peak activity, emitted about 2,000 tons of sulphur dioxide per day, compared with 81,000 tons per day by cars.
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High Priest
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posted 08-23-99 11:09 PM ET
GS: HEHEHE.Pretty funny On an info gathering rage. I've come up with more, better facts and proof for my upcoming debate High Priest |
Spoe
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posted 08-25-99 12:29 PM ET
High Priest: The reasoning in your post of 08-23-99 02:03 AM ET is a bit suspect. You have to look at the raw facts of both income by quintile, taxes by quintile, the total number of households, and total taxes collected. You gave almost all the pertinent numbers -- all except the number of households. For the moment let's assume that the number of households stayed the same(this will skew the results of my analysis slightly away from Reean's favor; I'll try to correct this later).You stated that total taxes collected rose from 275.3 to 354.4 billion, an increase of 28.7%. You also state that the percentage of total taxes paid by the lowest quintile stayed the same, at 1.6%, so the total amount of taxes paid by the lowest quintile increased by 28.7% while their total income(also from your figures) increased by only 7.3% -- this means their tax burden increased by 19.9%(as a percentage of their income). Even in the case of the second quintile, whose percentage of taxes decreased, the total amount of taxes paid increased by 21.3%, far higher than their 8.7% increase in come, and resulting in a percentage of income increase of 11.6%. For the top quintile, the total of all taxes paid increased by 34.2%, while their income increased by 17.7%, giving a percentage of income increase of 14.1%. Now, assume the number of households increased by 14.1%. This would eliminate any change in the top quintile's percentage of income increase, bringing it to 0%. For the bottom quintile, 5.1%. For the second, a decrease of 2.2%. As this analysis shows, the percentage of income rate that the bottom quintile paid in taxes either rose more or decreased less than that of the top quintile. The second quintile faired better, gaining against the top quintile. Similar calculations apply to the two quintiles I did not look at. |
OhWell
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posted 08-25-99 03:01 PM ET
Spoe,You seem to be assuming that �households� account for all of the 79.1 billion dollar increase in collected taxes. Increases in taxes collected from other sources, businesses for example, may account for much of it. Also HP says that the statistics take inflation into account but is that in the percentages shown or the dollar amount of taxes collected?
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Spoe
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posted 08-25-99 05:13 PM ET
Ohwell: "You seem to be assuming that 'households' account for all of the 79.1 billion dollar increase in collected taxes. Increases in taxes collected from other sources, businesses for example, may account for much of it." Certainly a valid point. I assumed, as perhaps I should not, that "From 1983-1989, the increase of Income Tax Revenues went..." referred to personal income taxes. Care to confirm, HP? However, this probably does not change the qualitative nature of my analysis; of any increase(and almost any decrease) in revenues from personal income taxes the lowest quintile still did worse that the highest. Assume, for example, that personal income tax revenue went down by 50% and the entire gain was due to corporate taxes. In this case, the lowest quintile payed 50% fewer dollars in total and as a percentage of income, went down 53.4%. For the top quintile, they paid 47.8% fewer total dollars, but combined with their 17.7% increase in income, the percentage of their income that was paid went down 55.7%, still more of a tax break than the botton quintile. "Also HP says that the statistics take inflation into account but is that in the percentages shown or the dollar amount of taxes collected?" Ok. Another good point. Since HP said that "all statistics take inflation into account", I assumed that the total tax figure was adjusted as well. Again, it doesn't change the qualitative nature of the analysis, only the quantitative, as the adjustment is applied evenly to all quintiles. |
OhWell
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posted 08-25-99 07:54 PM ET
Spoe,That could be, but I still feel that the information that HP provided is a little vague to draw any good conclusions from. Many of the "households" in the lowest range may not pay any income tax at all. Further, workers in the lower range are likely to be "unskilled labor" which would not have benefited from wage increases due to a larger demand for skilled or professional people.
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Ronbo
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posted 08-26-99 08:21 AM ET
Ohwell is correct on both counts. Remember, te number of people paying no taxes at all increased under Reagan's tax cuts. No because they were unemployed (heading off that line of reasoning right now), but because Reagan's tax cuts moved them into the tax-free bracket. |
Spoe
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posted 08-26-99 10:48 AM ET
Ronbo and Ohwell: re: people not paying taxes, etc. So then the taxes paid by the upper portion of the bottom quantile actually grew, no? Besides, you're just hurting your case a bit. If there are fewer households paying taxes in the bottom quintile then those that did pay taxes must have paid more(and realized an even larger loss of ground to the top quintile than my analysis showed) in taxes to keep their portion of all taxes even.Anyway, I wasn't arguing the effects of Reagan, not really. I was just showing HP that the statistics he was quoting weren't as supportive of Reagan as he seemed to think. |
OhWell
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posted 08-26-99 01:39 PM ET
And I wasn't arguing against your conclusions, rather that HPs information was too vague to draw any useful conclusion from one way or the other. |